The Monthly Dish: August 2026

Research evidence excerpt

The Monthly Dish: August 2026

Foundation

August 3, 2026 04:05 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMRestaurants | North America Brian Harbour, CFA

Equity Analyst

The Monthly Dish: August 2026 Brian.Harbour@morganstanley.comKelly Merrill +1 617 856-8090

Research Associate

Kelly.Merrill@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-4037

Our commodity index moved lower again in July and remains Hilary Lee, CFA

modestly deflationary, with poultry still favorable and beef ResearchHil.Lee@morganstanley.comAssociate +1 212 761-2203

beginning to ease, though freight is a growing offset. Demand

Restaurants

remains mixed but soft, with resilient Black Box, card data softer, North America

early earnings mostly better than expected though. IndustryFoodserviceView Distributors In-Line

North America

Key Takeaways Industry View In-Line

MS Commodity Index stayed modestly deflationary in July (-1.3% y/y), led by

chicken, eggs, and lettuce; beef eased, while freight accelerated.

Early earnings commentary points to a still manageable food cost backdrop, with

coffee moderating and wings favorable; freight is the main offset.

Demand remains mixed: retail sales slowed to +3.8% in June, Black Box held

stable at +1.8%, and July card data has weakened to -5.5%.

The World Cup provided little visible lift: CAKE and CMG saw minimal impact,

while WING's strength was limited to select match days.

Restaurant pricing and wages remain stable, while PPI is manageable; sentiment

improved, though no clear demand inflection yet.

Commodities

Our commodity index remains modestly deflationary, down -1.3% y/y in July, and

-38bps lower m/m vs. June. Lower poultry prices continue to support the basket’s

deflationary trend, with lettuce, rice, and potatoes also keeping price pressure

contained.