2Q26 Preview: Mixed Bag Continues, Will New Winners Emerge?

Research evidence excerpt

2Q26 Preview: Mixed Bag Continues, Will New Winners Emerge?

IdeaMdemanding for PFGC into a new FY, a bit more demanding for USFD (EW) looking at

consensus estimates, though we lean positive longer term, and we see a more in-line

quarter for SYY (EW), and perhaps modest FY27 guidance ahead of closing the RD

acquisition.

We see a tougher quarter for franchised fast food yet again, with a couple of

exceptions. We remain OW YUM in this group (see our upgrade here), not really

modeling a beat in 2Q (Europe/Asia perhaps softer, and TB in line to lighter) but on

the idea that growth will look better post PH and TB remains strong in absolute. For

QSR (EW), the constructive BK story should continue, and the solid narrative

perhaps continues to improve, though last quarter showed why this alone isn't

always enough to drive clean upside to earnings, and this could remain the case as

the stock has remained range bound. For MCD (EW), we think a US miss (and

perhaps IOM) is well understood and positioning cautious, and 2H could also face

some risk barring a strong beverage showing or blockbuster promo. Our EPS comes

down partly on FX, but the next leg of the story will mainly be about the coming

remodel and innovation cycle, to be discussed at September's investor day. Across

DPZ (EW), JACK (EW) and WEN (UW), we see top-line misses as plausible, and

generally appreciated, emblematic of the tough QSR environment, with further risk

to near-term estimates. For DPZ, the question will be how new mgmt approaches

current challenges, and whether the '27 setup could be better (we don't expect to

answer this yet, and would remain cautious), and for WEN there is some incremental

optimism about new mgmt and turnaround plans, but not much to latch onto at this