The Monthly Dish: July 2026

Research evidence excerpt

The Monthly Dish: July 2026

Foundation

July 1, 2026 04:01 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMRestaurants | North America Brian Harbour, CFA

Equity Analyst

The Monthly Dish: July 2026 Brian.Harbour@morganstanley.comKelly Merrill +1 617 856-8090

Research Associate

Kelly.Merrill@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-4037

Our commodity index pulled back in June, a modest positive as Hilary Lee, CFA

gas prices also retreat and help the consumer, though the usual ResearchHil.Lee@morganstanley.comAssociate +1 212 761-2203

pockets of pressure persist. Retail sales and credit card data

Restaurants

suggest an ongoing tougher demand environment, largely stable North America

of late (even with the World Cup underway). IndustryFoodserviceView Distributors In-Line

North America

Key Takeaways Industry View In-Line

MS Commodity Index turned deflationary in June (-1.3% y/y), led by chicken, eggs,

coffee and dairy. Beef, produce & freight remain the primary pressure points.

Food inflation fears have eased somewhat. DRI pointed to ~3% in FY27, a bit

higher in the current qtr with fuel surcharges. Energy/ag prices remain key

though.

Industry demand remains in a lower gear, similar to prior months. Black Box

rather resilient, retail sales sub 3%, CC data negative including into late June.

Restaurant pricing remains stable, while upstream PPI continued to firm, as did

wage inflation.

Consumer sentiment rebounded somewhat and DPI improved. Macro variables

could help, not apparent yet though a key question as we head into the 2H.

Happy 250th Independence Day to all in the US!

Commodities

Our commodity index flipped modestly deflationary, down -1.3% y/y in June, and

-81bps lower m/m vs. May. Deflation in poultry continues to drive relief in our

basket, with coffee, dairy, and rice also limiting upside.