2Q26: Back to Brighter Days?

Research evidence excerpt

2Q26: Back to Brighter Days?

Update

July 30, 2026 02:50 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMChipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. | North America Brian Harbour, CFA

Equity Analyst

2Q26: Back to Brighter Days? Brian.Harbour@morganstanley.comKelly Merrill +1 617 856-8090

Research Associate

What’s Changed Kelly.Merrill@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-4037

Hilary Lee, CFA

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG.N) From To Research Associate

Price Target $37.00 $39.00 Hil.Lee@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-2203

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG.N, CMG UN)

AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction

Restaurants | United States of America

Unchanged Modest upside Largely unchanged Stock Rating Equal-weight

Impact to our thesis Financial results versus consensus Direction of next 12-month Industry View In-Line

consensus EPS Price target $39.00

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research Shr price, close (Jul 29, 2026) $34.24

Mkt cap, curr (mm) $43,798

52-Week Range $44.83-28.04

Results modestly ahead of expectations and 1% txn growth, with

Fiscal Year Ending 12/25 12/26e 12/27e 12/28e

momentum until last couple of weeks. For bulls playing for a EPS ($)** 1.17 1.14 1.38 1.61

return to MSD% comps, that possibility exists, though not a ModelWare EPS ($) 1.16 1.15 1.42 1.66

Prior EPS ($)** - 1.13 1.34 1.55

given, in our view. Numbers only slightly higher here, though Prior ModelWare EPS - 1.14 1.37 1.58

($)

some traction positive for the narrative. Remain EW. P/E 31.8 29.8 24.1 20.7

EPS ($)§ 1.15 1.13 1.35 1.59

Div yld (%) - - - -

Key Takeaways Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare

framework

2Q SSS +2.2% beat St; traffic improved on LTOs, rewards and promotions; ** = Based on consensus methodology

§ = Consensus data is provided by Refinitiv Estimates