2Q26: A Historically Strong Cheesecake Quarter; Upgrading to EW

Research evidence excerpt

2Q26: A Historically Strong Cheesecake Quarter; Upgrading to EW

these are short term lifts, though CAKE wouldn't be the

first to drive some durable traffic gains with social engagement and marketing

broadly, and so we won't dismiss them out of hand. At Flower Child, 2Q comps were

up +13% (following +10% in 1Q) with ~8% traffic growth and strength in new and

existing markets. North Italia remained weaker at -3%.

What could go the other way? Suggesting strong MSD% comps into 3Q creates a

much higher bar and it would be a break with history for this to persist. If it did, we

could see further upward EPS revisions. De-rating would happen if this were to

return to a more historical range. A fairly benign commodity and labor environment

has been helpful for CAKE margins for some time now, and the company has

substantial operating leverage, which would go the other way quickly if food costs

were to jump higher, a risk driven by energy, weather, and other macro factors. Good

sales and favorable costs favor CAKE from an estimate revision perspective, though

DRI, for example, should fare better among casual diners if this fades.

Guidance moving higher on better 2Q and early 3Q: FY'26 revenue guide is now

$4B from $3.91B prior and above St $3.93B, which includes continued comp

strength into 3Q though this line is not guided specifically. CAKE is now guiding to

~60bps of RLM expansion in FY'26 ex gift card breakage impact in '25, up from

~25bps prior. Roughly 30bps should come from cost of sales on a relatively stable

commodity outlook, with another ~30 bps from labor leverage; other opex should

remain roughly flat as CAKE reinvests in marketing and other growth efforts. This

supports the updated guide of 5.4% adj. net income margin, up from 5% prior. FY'26