REAL-TIME GLOBAL RESEARCH
Ipsen: 3Q‘26 Cons. Comp: JPMe in line with consensus on Sales; expected FY‘26 guidance reiteration implies consensus largely underpinned
Key takeaways
- Comp: JPMe in line with consensus on Sales; expected FY’26 guidance reiteration implies Ipsen is to report 3Q’26 Sales on Thursday, October 22, at 6am BST (7am CEST; 1am EDT), followed by a conference call on the same da
- Following our 3Q’26 results preview (see our note here), we now provide a comparison against the latest Vara consensus (dated October 16).
- Overall, for 3Q, we are in line with consensus on Sales, as our lower forecasts for Onivyde, Cabometyx and Bylvay are offset by our higher forecasts for Iqirvo and Dysport.
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Research evidence excerpt
3Q’26 Cons. Comp: JPMe in line with consensus on Sales; expected FY’26 guidance reiteration implies Ipsen is to report 3Q’26 Sales on Thursday, October 22, at 6am BST (7am CEST; 1am EDT), followed by a conference call on the same day at 12pm BST (1pm CEST; 7am EDT, registration here). Following our 3Q’26 results preview (see our note here), we now provide a comparison against the latest Vara consensus (dated October 16).
Overall, for 3Q, we are in line with consensus on Sales, as our lower forecasts for Onivyde, Cabometyx and Bylvay are offset by our higher forecasts for Iqirvo and Dysport. For 2026, we expect Ipsen to reiterate its guidance for FY’26 as the company has already embedded the impact from the launch of Amneal Somatuline US generics in 4Q’26. As a result, we expect the guidance to remain at Sales growth of “>20.0% at CER” with a 1% FX headwind on sales and Core Operating Profit guidance for a “>37% margin”. Assuming 20.5% CER Sales growth with a -1% FX headwind implies FY’26 Sales of €4,385m, 1% behind latest consensus of €4,409m and a 37.5% margin implies FY’26 Core Operating Profit of €1,644m, in line with consensus at €1,650m.
- 3Q’26 JPMe Sales in line with consensus. We forecast 3Q’26 Total Sales of €1,109m, which is in line with consensus of €1,113m. Key delta at the product level includes our lower forecasts for Onivyde sales of €42m, 9%/€4m below consensus of €46m, driven by our expectation for decline in North America 2L pancreatic cancer sales in 3Q’26, following the August 26, 2026 approval of RevMed’s Rasonque (daraxonrasib)* in 2L+ metastatic pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). Our Cabometyx sales forecast of €172m is c. 2%/ €3m behind consensus at €175m, and our Bylvay sales forecast of €61m, c. 5%/ €3m behind consensus at €64m. This is offset by our higher Iqirvo sales forecast of 114m, 9%/€10m above consensus of €105m and our Dysport sales forecast of €213, 1%/€2m above consensus of €211m.
- Expect 2026 guidance reiteration as the company has already embedded the impact from the launch of Amneal Somatuline US generics in 4Q’26: We
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