REAL-TIME GLOBAL RESEARCH
Singapore Real Estate & Property: Sep-26 Primary Sales Recovers but Bumper Expected in Oct-26E
Key takeaways
- Sep-26 primary sales rose 16/18% YoY (+93/+87% MoM) to 296/319 units (46/41/13% from mass-market/mid-end/high-end) excluding/including executive condominiums (ECs), on end of Hungry Ghost Festival (13-Augto-10-Sep) and 2
- 9M26 primary sales of 5,334/6,745 units excluding/including ECs (-32%/-28% YoY) comprised 49/54% of full-year 2025.
- We expect Oct-26E primary sales of 1,2001,400 units (down 40-50% YoY), mainly on decent take-up at 570-unit Lucerne Grand by City Developments (CDL) and 1,268-unit Thomson Reserve (owned/developed by UOL Group, Singapore
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Research evidence excerpt
Sep-26 Primary Sales Recovers but Bumper Expected in Oct-26E
Sep-26 primary sales rose 16/18% YoY (+93/+87% MoM) to 296/319 units (46/41/13% from mass-market/mid-end/high-end) excluding/including executive condominiums (ECs), on end of Hungry Ghost Festival (13-Augto-10-Sep) and 2 new launches – Amberwood at Holland and Luxus Hill, which sold 24 and 18 units, respectively. 9M26 primary sales of 5,334/6,745 units excluding/including ECs (-32%/-28% YoY) comprised 49/54% of full-year 2025. We expect Oct-26E primary sales of 1,2001,400 units (down 40-50% YoY), mainly on decent take-up at 570-unit Lucerne Grand by City Developments (CDL) and 1,268-unit Thomson Reserve (owned/developed by UOL Group, Singapore Land Group, and CapitaLand Development). However, volumes in Nov-26E and Dec-26E should normalize to 400-600 units/month on seasonality and schoolholidays, which translates to full-year 2026E sales of ~7,300-7,900 units (down 27-32% YoY). While the YoY decline isn't ideal for Developers, we continue to see value in UOL and CDL, but prefer CDL on valuations (0.39x P/B) and more proactive portfolio reconstitution.
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