REAL-TIME GLOBAL RESEARCH
Australia Technology & Communications: Chart of the day: Weak consumer sentiment has the most read-through for Seek, followed by REA
Key takeaways
- Chart of the day: Weak consumer sentiment has the most read-through for Seek, followed by REA Amid macro concerns and cost of living pressures, consumer sentiment has been weak and has declined for two consecutive months
- Our analysis highlights that between CAR, REA and Seek, consumer sentiment has the strongest correlation to job listings and is a lead indicator (3 to 6 months).
- New property listings has a weaker correlation especially if you exclude COVID years and has a 0.5 correlation with consumer sentiment yoy change with a 2 month lead.
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Research evidence excerpt
Australia Technology & Communications
Chart of the day: Weak consumer sentiment has the most read-through for Seek, followed by REA Amid macro concerns and cost of living pressures, consumer sentiment has been weak and has declined for two consecutive months in September and October, from 89 in August to 80 in October. Our analysis highlights that between CAR, REA and Seek, consumer sentiment has the strongest correlation to job listings and is a lead indicator (3 to 6 months). New property listings has a weaker correlation especially if you exclude COVID years and has a 0.5 correlation with consumer sentiment yoy change with a 2 month lead. Interestingly, consumer sentiment does not seem to be a driver for used cars though we note that data is limited. The weak consumer sentiment points to ongoing weakness in new job listings volumes which is consistent with our forecast (-5% yoy for FY27e) though we note that job listing volume decline to date is tracking slightly better than expected.
- Our used car analysis is based on NSW used car transfers given Victoria and Queensland data is limited.
- Correlation analysis against new property listings is from January 2017 onwards.
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