REAL-TIME GLOBAL RESEARCH
Avanza Bank: Q3 26: 2% PBT miss on lower income despite better than expected costs.
Key takeaways
- Q3 26: 2% PBT miss on lower income despite better than expected costs.
- Our Take: Avanza reported a 2% PBT miss, due to Operating income that was 2% below consensus, only partially offset by costs that were 3% lower than expectations.
- Within revenues, most components missed estimates, with brokerage income 5% below, currency-related income 7% below, fund commissions 3% below and NII 2% below.
Figures are read from the report's first page; the summary is built from the report's own key-takeaway sentences. No model-generated text.
Research evidence excerpt
Q3 26: 2% PBT miss on lower income despite better than expected costs.
Our Take: Avanza reported a 2% PBT miss, due to Operating income that was 2% below consensus, only partially offset by costs that were 3% lower than expectations. Within revenues, most components missed estimates, with brokerage income 5% below, currency-related income 7% below, fund commissions 3% below and NII 2% below. Other income was instead substantially above consensus. Avanza attributed the miss in brokerage revenues to mix, with a larger proportion of PRO and Private Banking volumes over the quarter, which benefit from lower trading fees. On costs, while Avanza has reiterated the guidance of underlying cost growth of c9% for Sweden, the expected costs for the Denmark in 2026 are now SEK40m (SEK10m less than previously anticipated), although the medium-term guidance of SEK120-150m until launch remains unchanged. We expect a negative share price reaction, given the miss across multiple divisions.
Noteworthy Areas: 1) Operating income was 2% below company-compiled consensus at SEK 1,283m; this was driven by currency-related income, net brokerage income, fund commissions, and NII being 7%, 5%, 3%, and 2% below consensus, respectively. Other income was materially higher than consensus. 2) Operating expenses of SEK 362m were 3% lower than consensus; 3) Operating Margin increased 2% Q/Q, in-line with 3Q 2025, and 30bps better than consensus. 4) Profit before tax was a small miss of 2% relative to consensus; 5) Net profit was 1% below consensus expectations. 6) Expansion to Denmark is proceeding according to plan and expected costs for 2026 have been reduced by SEK 10m to SEK 40m, while the medium term guidance of SEK120-150m until launch remains unchanged.
Outlook & Guidance: No change to company guidance of (i) Operating cost growth of 9% in 2026 (in line with consensus expectations), (ii) medium-term savings capital growth of 15% and cost growth of 8% on average (excluding international expansion, but including the cloud migration), with an exit rate of 5% by 2030. However, Avanza has lowered its cost guidance for the
The English excerpt is extracted automatically from the cited source page and may contain layout or recognition errors. It is never batch translated.
Open report viewer