REAL-TIME GLOBAL RESEARCH
The Financials Statement: European Banks & CRE; 3Q Earnings kick-off; JPM Fins Conference
Key takeaways
- European Banks & CRE; 3Q Earnings kick-off; JPM This week in 3 things:
- Primary market activity picked up slightly, though remaining constrained largely on account of most of the sector’s entry into blackout periods ahead of 3Q26 earnings.
- Just over ~€3bn equivalent of European bank paper was placed with investors, including an AT1 tender-and-new-issue from Banco BPM, and two $ Sr HoldCo transactions from Natwest Group and KBC.
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Research evidence excerpt
European Banks & CRE; 3Q Earnings kick-off; JPM This week in 3 things:
Primary market activity picked up slightly, though remaining constrained largely on account of most of the sector’s entry into blackout periods ahead of 3Q26 earnings. Just over ~€3bn equivalent of European bank paper was placed with investors, including an AT1 tender-and-new-issue from Banco BPM, and two $ Sr HoldCo transactions from Natwest Group and KBC. In insurance, StandardLife was the only active participant, with a £ Tier 2.
Secondary spreads moved modestly tighter this week, led by a pullback in higher beta capital, while senior credit was broadly unchanged. AT1 and RT1 materially outperformed, with bank €AT1 tightening -9bp to 279bp and insurance €RT1 tightening -17bp to 291bp. In the Tier 2 and hybrid complex, Bank T2 tightened -3bp to 122bp while inco T2 Dated narrowed by the same amount, to 143bp; while corporate hybrids tightened -7bp to 169bp. Senior was meanwhile flat to slightly tighter across Financials, in line with non-fins senior.
Our thematic spotlight this week is CRE: we published a note refreshing our thoughts on risks to the European Banks sector following the sharp rates move. We highlight the very limited damage the sector sustained from the first cycle, implying a second - likely shallower - cycle should have commensurately less impact to the bulk of our universe. We accordingly contain our focus and recommendation changes to the most exposed and least profitable German Landesbank/specialist lenders.
Financials Conference: November 18-20th, London
We are delighted to invite you to the J.P. Morgan Financials Conference, taking place from Wednesday, November 18th to Friday, November 20th at our city office at 60 Victoria Embankment, London, EC4Y 0JP.
The conference will convene CEOs and CFOs from leading financial firms with a broad range of top‑tier investors. Engagement will be driven by an extensive programme of one‑on‑one/small‑group meetings, complemented by a sector‑focused agenda designed to foster constructive, cross‑border
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