Ahead of FIPE: What September List Prices Signal for RENT and MOVI

Research evidence excerpt

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M

Idea

September 15, 2026 10:00 PM GMT

Brazil Car Rentals | Latin America

Morgan Stanley México, Casa de Bolsa, S.A. de C.V.+

Jens Spiess, CFA

Equity Analyst

Ahead of FIPE: What September

List Prices Signal for RENT and

MOVI

Our tracker points to +0.2%/-0.1% M/M list-price changes for

RENT/MOVI inventories in Sep. We think RENT’s -1.1% Aug FIPE

may have been amplified by the model-year 2027 transition and

would not be surprised to see subsequent FIPE prints moderate.

We assume RENT's D&A/car will go mildly up in 2H26

Morgan Stanley C.T.V.M. S.A.+

Joao Pedro Franco dos Santos

Research Associate

Gustavo Soares

Research Associate

Latin America Transportation & Infrastructure

Latin America

Industry View

In-Line

Key Takeaways

Our proprietary seminovos tracker offers a timelier read than FIPE, capturing

monthly pricing and mix changes for RENT and MOVI inventories

RENT website prices may lead FIPE: July fell 0.8%, followed by a 1.1% Aug FIPE

decline; month-t list price moves correlate ~76% with FIPE at t+1

September list prices changed +0.2%/-0.1% M/M for RENT/MOVI; mix continued

shifting toward newer vehicles

We see August’s -1.1% FIPE print for RENT reflecting not only amplified

competition from Chinese OEMs, but also driven by the model-year 2027

transition

We would not be surprised to see subsequent FIPE prints moderate in the

coming months — though we continue to assume RENT D&A/car will mildly go

up in 3Q/4Q26

Our proprietary seminovos tracker provides a timelier read on used-car pricing

than FIPE… For our new mid-month tracker, we collected inventory and list-price

data from Localiza’s and Movida’s seminovos websites, with a focus on (i) changes in

inventory mix and, more importantly, (ii) intra-month pricing trends. We see this as a

useful complement to FIPE — Brazil’s closest equivalent to Kelley Blue Book in the

US — given the index is published with a meaningful lag. For context, the FIPE print

released on September 1 reflects prices collected during the first week of August,

while company websites provide a more timely, higher-frequency read on market

behavior.

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