Paint Sales Update: July P&WP Up HSD & August HIRS Up MSD

Research evidence excerpt

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M

Idea

September 16, 2026 01:57 PM GMT

Sherwin-Williams Co. | North America

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC

Vincent Andrews

Equity Analyst

Paint Sales Update: July P&WP

Up HSD & August HIRS Up

MSD

Steven K Haynes, CFA

Equity Analyst

Sherwin-Williams Co. (SHW.N, SHW UN)

Chemicals | United States of America

Stock Rating

Industry View

Price target

Shr price, close (Sep 15, 2026)

Mkt cap, curr (mm)

52-Week Range

Overweight

In-Line

$395.00

$323.22

$79,154

$377.00-289.91

Key Takeaways

July P&WP sales +8.0% Y/Y vs. +7.4% comp on flat workdays.

August HIRS +5.1% Y/Y vs. -1.8% comp also on flat workdays.

July Paint & Wallpaper sales (i.e., "do it for me" - DIFM - proxy) were +8.0% Y/Y

(vs. +7.4% comp) on flat workdays.

• Two-year stacked growth fell to +15.4% Y/Y from +19.2% in June, as growth

in July decelerated against a similar comp (i.e., July 2025 +7.4% vs. June 2025

+7.1%).

• SHW SSS vs. P&WP – The first month of 3Q compares to Sherwin's

guidance for PSG sales to grow MSD% in the quarter. Recall that 2Q P&WP

of +6.0%, compared to Sherwin's 2Q reported SSS of +4.2% and that 2025

P&WP was +5.6% Y/Y, which compares to Sherwin SSS at +1.7%.

• Comparison considerations

° SSS has underperformed P&WP by an average of ~340 bps over the last

six quarters, which compares to a prior streak of ten consecutive

quarters of SSS outperformance averaging ~260 bps.

° In the current period, we believe that SSS underperformance is largely

driven by Sherwin not pricing immediately for the Iran-related raw

material inflation (i.e., 8% pricing implemented by SHW on September 1

versus peers who went right away). That said, there could also be impact

from end-market mix, choppiness in government data, as well as peers

that have been more aggressive than SHW on price in the past 18

months, et al. Regardless, we do not read this as a narrative shift and

note that management commentary on the current/future competitive

opportunity has remained bullish. If anything, we believe that it is

positive that the industry broadly is holding up the price umbrella now,

versus historically waiting for Sherwin to price. We also note that the

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