2027 Guidance Cut: Is the Bar Set Low Enough?

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M

Update

September 16, 2026 02:01 PM GMT

Huntington Bancshares | North America

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC

Manan Gosalia

Equity Analyst

2027 Guidance Cut: Is the Bar

Set Low Enough?

Brian Wilczynski, CFA

Equity Analyst

Huntington Bancshares (HBAN.O, HBAN US)

2027 EPS guidance cut from $1.90-1.93 to $1.75-1.83 was in line with our below

Large Cap Banks | United States of America

Consensus $1.81 estimate coming into the conference. We downgraded HBAN to

Stock Rating

Industry View

Price target

Shr price, close (Sep 15, 2026)

Mkt cap, curr (mm)

52-Week Range

Equal-weight from Overweight in July because we saw downside risk to both Street

estimates and the company's prior EPS target as loan and deposit competition

intensified (Consensus is at $1.88).

Equal-weight

Attractive

$19.00

$16.75

$33,835

$19.46-14.89

As we expected, the biggest driver of the EPS target cut is weaker net interest

margin driven by both higher deposit costs and lower loan spreads. Net interest

margin is now expected to be near the "mid-320s" next year, which is about 5-10bps

below the prior guidance. The monthly deposit cost trajectory shown in the

company's presentation suggests that deposit costs are coming in higher Q/Q in the

third quarter. There seems to be some stabilization vs June, but we think that

upcoming rate hikes could put more pressure on deposit costs from here.

The question is whether the company has set an achievable bar for EPS next year,

given that loan and deposit competition will likely continue to intensify across the

group, especially in Texas and the Southeast, where Huntington is expanding.

We believe the new guide is more achievable, especially as deal synergies come

through, and there is room for buybacks to move higher (we model $1.7 bil of

buybacks for next year, which is above the company's revised $1.3-1.4 bil range).

With that said, given there have been multiple cuts in guidance this year, HBAN

has become more of a show-me story. We expect the market will need to see more

concrete signs of stabilization in NIM pressure and loan growth, which we think is

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