Inbound Tourists/Outbound Japanese (Aug): 2026 Inbound Demand Looks Increasingly Likely to be Weaker YoY

Research evidence excerpt

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M

Update

September 16, 2026 02:01 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+

Airlines/Tourism | Japan

Takuya Osaka

Equity Analyst

Inbound Tourists/Outbound

Japanese (Aug): 2026 Inbound

Demand Looks Increasingly

Likely to be Weaker YoY

Shan Jiang

Research Associate

Airlines

Japan

Industry View

Tourism

Japan

Industry View

In-Line

Key Takeaways

The JNTO released Aug data on Sep 16. Overall impression: no surprise, with MoJ

data having been reported earlier in the day.

Growth in demand from Europe/America/S Korea/Taiwan/Hong Kong/etc. remains

unable to fully offset declines from China/SE Asia (Europe & America growth

slowing).

20yr historical data suggests a -8% MoM fall is typical for Aug. Compared to this,

demand was -10% MoM in Aug 2026, giving a weak impression.

We forecast inbound demand to Japan -8% YoY in 2026. A simple calculation

suggests a roughly 4% YoY fall if demand continues to decline at the same rate

as Aug.

We expect YoY comps to ease from Dec at the earliest.

Inbound demand -9.6% YoY: Inbound tourists to Japan totaled 3.098mn, down

9.6% YoY. Outbound Japanese tourists numbered 1.588mn, down 3.6% YoY.

Airlines/Tourism: Inbound Demand by Airport (MoJ Data for Aug 2026): Down 6%

YoY, Largest Drop in 2026 (15 Sep 2026)

Transportation: Prelim Data for 1st Week of Sep from Global Hotel Weekly RevPAR

Tracker: Aug RevPAR +0.1% YoY; 1st Week of Sep +0.4%, Trend Intact (10 Sep 2026)

Exhibit 1:

Growth in inbound visitors to Japan and outbound Japanese travellers

vs. 2019 (lhs), and growth in inbound demand from Europe/Americas (rhs)

Inbound demand YoY %

Compared to 2019 (%)

200%

150%

100%

50%

0%

20/4 20/10 21/4 21/10 22/4 22/10 23/4 23/10 24/4 24/10 25/4 25/10 26/4

inbound(excl. China)

inbound

outbound

inbound(from China)

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

(5)

(10)

(15)

23.3

13.0

11.3

11.2

7.5

5.6

3.0

4.7

6.6

2.7

-0.1

March

Source: Japan National Tourism Organization (JNTO), Morgan Stanley Research

-12.4

April

May

EU

June

Americas

July

August

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