Who Can Catch China‘s Humanoids?

Research evidence excerpt

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M

Update

September 16, 2026 02:00 PM GMT

The Rowdy Robot | North America

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC

Adam Jonas, CFA

Equity Analyst

Who Can Catch China's

Humanoids?

William Tackett, CFA

Research Associate

Devin Roser

Research Associate

China's 2nd annual World Humanoid Robot Games in Beijing

showed the remarkable rate of change in humanoid

development across locomotion, speed/power, fine motor skills

and autonomy. Is China's physical AI lead over the US widening?

When will the US have its first Robot Games?

• Faster than Bolt. A Chinese humanoid just ran the fastest 100 meters in

history. Tiangong Ultra won the large-size 100-meter final in 8.64 seconds,

beating both Usain Bolt's world record of 9.58 seconds and its own winning

time of 21.5 seconds from last year's Games. The gain was achieved by

reducing mass in the torso and waist, and upgrading the robot's motors and

control stack. For context, humans needed roughly a century to cut 10% off

the 100-meter record. Robots just cut 60% from the humanoid record in

twelve months.

• It's all in the hands. The Dexterous Hand Challenge, a new competition in

this year's Games, featured eight events: 1) Power-tool assembly, 2) Powder

weighing, 3) Bricklaying, 4) Nail fastening, 5) Lid opening, 6) Box unpacking,

7) Bean-picking with tweezers, and 8) Cable connections. These events

showcased recent humanoid developments in fine motor skills and

autonomy, and they map directly onto value-add tasks in manufacturing and

warehouse automation. They also exposed the gap between the leaders and

the rest of the field, as some robots struggled to hammer a nail, while other

robots demonstrated impressive dexterity. Moravec's paradox is clear, with

robots demonstrating adult-level performance on the track, and a toddler's

performance with their hands.

• Is China's lead widening? Chinese vendors shipped more than 97% of

global humanoids in H1 2026, a market itself up 272% Y/Y. Chinese

customers accounted for more than 85% of demand. Our China Industrials

Team recently lifted its 2026 China shipment forecast to 50k units from 28k

and sees 446k units by 2030e.…