China Advanced Packaging: Favor Capex Beneficiaries & Share Gainers

Research evidence excerpt

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M

Asia Pacific Insight

September 15, 2026 08:56 PM GMT

Greater China Technology Semiconductors

Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+

Daisy Dai, CFA

Equity Analyst

China Advanced Packaging:

Favor Capex Beneficiaries &

Share Gainers

China's advanced packaging industry remains a secular AI-driven

growth story. But, we see rising overcapacity risk and prefer

equipment vendors and market share gainers.

Advanced packaging is becoming increasingly critical to AI GPU performance,

particularly in China. As AI accelerators require greater compute density, memory

Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+

Charlie Chan

Equity Analyst

Henry Zhao

Equity Analyst

Research Associate

Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+

Research Associate

outlook for China advanced packaging.

Ethan Jia

pathway to improve performance. This is particularly important for China, where

performance improvements. We are therefore constructive on the structural growth

Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+

Lucas Wang

front-end process scaling, increasing the strategic value of packaging-led

Daniel Yen, CFA

bandwidth, and system-level integration, advanced packaging provides a key

restrictions on access to leading-edge semiconductor equipment constrain further

Greater China Technology Semiconductors

Asia Pacific

Industry View

Attractive

What’s Changed

translates into OSAT earnings. We see a growing risk of moderate overcapacity, as

JCET Group Co Ltd

(600584.SS)

Rating

From

To

Equal-weight Overweight

attractive industry growth and margins encourage incumbent OSATs and new

Price Target

Rmb50.00

Rmb90.20

SJ Semiconductor Corp

(688820.SS)

Rating

From

NA

To

Equal-weight

Price Target

Rmb0.00

Rmb118.40

However, we are more cautious than consensus on how this TAM growth

entrants to add 2.5D/3D capacity. Our bottom-up analysis suggests China’s 2.5D

capacity could rise from 120k wafers in 2025 to 436k in 2027, while effective

demand remains constrained by advanced-node yields and HBM availability. We

estimate industry utilization at only ~63% in 2027, suggesting stronger competition

could weigh on pricing and limit margin upside even as industry revenue continues

to grow.

…