Energy Transfer LP (ET): 2Q26 Recap: Positive Commentary on NGLs and Gas Projects; EBITDA CAGR to 6% Though Still Slightly Below Consensus

Research evidence excerpt

Equity Research

18 August 2026 | 4:01PM EDT

Energy Transfer LP (ET): 2Q26 Recap: Positive Commentary on NGLs and

Gas Projects; EBITDA CAGR to 6% Though Still Slightly Below Consensus

Following 2Q26 earnings for Energy Transfer (ET, Neutral), we revise our

estimates. The quarter was much stronger than expected on marketing and

optimization gains, with the NGL segment as the most notable driver though gains in

crude and SUN were also notable. Management increased 2026 EBITDA guidance to

$18.8-19.1b, vs. GSe of $19.18b and consensus of $18.76b. In particular, we see

implied 2H26 guidance as conservative, even as outsized marketing gains in 2Q26

should normalize, with tailwinds from new projects and ongoing Permian gas and

NGL volume growth. Looking forward, formal updates were lighter but commentary

around NGL pipeline recontracting expectations and further natural gas

demand-facing projects was constructive. The company did not share a formal

project backlog, as some investors expected per conversations going into the

release, but noted expectations of ~$5b of net growth spend through 2030 (roughly

in-line with GSe) - with projects focused on gas and NGLs. We look for updates over

coming quarters, particularly on the interstate gas side - including potentially TX into

LA links to connect their ramping Hugh Brinson project to LNG demand. We increase

our EBITDA estimates by ~1% going forward (and introduce 2031-32 forecasts), with

2026 higher on marketing gains and 2027+ largely higher on better NGL pipeline

volume assumptions, offsetting the removal - for now - of the MLO2-DAPL project.

Our 2025-30 EBITDA CAGR moves to ~6% from ~5%, now the highest in our

large-cap MLP coverage. Overall, we remain slightly below consensus, though we

acknowledge higher gas backlog project additions and/or better Permian G&P

market share gains could push our estimates more in line and make us more

constructive. We maintain our Neutral rating and $22 PT.

John Mackay

+1(212)357-5379 |

Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

Jackie Koletas

+1(917)343-6953 |

Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

Olivia Foster

Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

Ben Lund

Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

Key Takeaways

Earnings Summary

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