Plains All American (PAA/PAGP): 2Q26 Recap: New Projects Coming Into Focus, but We Continue to Expect More Modest Permian Crude Growth

Research evidence excerpt

Equity Research

18 August 2026 | 4:35PM EDT

Plains All American (PAA/PAGP): 2Q26 Recap: New Projects Coming Into

Focus, but We Continue to Expect More Modest Permian Crude Growth

Following 2Q26 earnings, we refresh our estimates for Plains All American

(PAA/PAGP, Neutral). 2Q26 results were constructive, with non-Permian crude

volumes driving most of the beat vs. our estimate but the core Permian still

performing well (volumes +1% vs GSe and +3% QoQ). For 2026, management

reiterated EBITDA guidance of $2,805-2,955m (vs. new GSe and consensus of

$2,893m and $2,889m) but increased its Permian production expectations to a

100-200 kb/d exit-to-exit growth rate. This is up from its previous expectations of

flat growth, and points to a more constructive setup for 2027 - particularly as next

year should also see higher PLA contributions and modest new projects coming

online. On the latter, updates were largely in-line (Cactus III expansion, Clearwater

and Duvernay crude gathering in Canada, etc). We believe investors generally

continue to expect the organic project backlog to expand over the coming months

(after years of lighter growth capital spend), with a focus specifically on new

Northern Delaware crude gathering growth and (over time) potential Canadian

egress projects (Rangeland expansion, etc). 2027 capex was guided similar to 2026,

and we are watching for more color on go-forward run-rate expectations, as well as

how management expects to balance spend with its ongoing capital return program.

We increase our EBITDA estimates slightly going forward (and introduce 2031-32

ests), driving our PT to $25 (from $24 prior), though remain ~1% below consensus as

we continue to expect more modest Permian crude growth. We reiterate our Neutral

ratings.

John Mackay

+1(212)357-5379 |

Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

Jackie Koletas

+1(917)343-6953 |

Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

Olivia Foster

Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

Ben Lund

Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

Key Takeaways

Earnings Summary.

2Q26 above expectations. PAA reported 2Q26 EBITDA of $738m, +3% above

GSe/consensus of $714m/$715m. The delta was driven by stronger non-Permian

crude volumes.…