ANZ FMCG suppliers: NielsenIQ data read-through 8/8/26

Research evidence excerpt

Equity Research

19 August 2026 | 6:34AM AEST

AUSTRALIA INDUSTRIALS

ANZ FMCG suppliers: NielsenIQ data read-through 8/8/26

Bottom line

NielsenIQ data for the 4-wks ending 8/8/26 continues to show diverging trends

across packaged food, HPPC, and beverages. On a 4-wk rolling basis, HPPC volumes

were +2.2%, while packaged food volumes declined MSD (also slowed sequentially

from 2-wks prior). Beverage volumes were broadly stable, rising to 1.2% in

aggregate, consistent with the LSD-MSD growth range seen in prior months. A

notable callout is PepsiCo’s Sports Drinks, a high-value category for Amcor (AMC),

which has decelerated sequentially to +2.9% in the latest 4-week period (vs. +9.5%

2-wks prior), albeit still consistently outperforming the broader sports drink market

(+0.7%). Amid an uncertain macro backdrop, earnings delivery for AMC and BXB is

likely to remain driven by company-specific levers, pricing, cost discipline, and

operational execution, rather than cyclical demand tailwinds.

Niraj Shah

Goldman Sachs Australia Pty Ltd

Sophie Yu

Goldman Sachs Australia Pty Ltd

Alex Nosatti

Goldman Sachs Australia Pty Ltd

Key takeaways:

n

Americas HPPC rolling 4-wk volumes increased 2.2% (vs. +0.0% 2-wks prior),

marking the strongest volume print since late Jan26.

n

Americas packaged foods rolling 4-wk volumes declined 4.0% (vs. -3.2% 2-wks

prior), marking a continuation of the persistent negative volume trend that has

defined the category all year.

n

Americas beverage rolling 4-wk volume trends saw 3 of the 6 tracked categories

growing yoy (vs. 5/6 2-wks prior). The weighted average across all six beverage

categories increased 1.2% (vs. +2.4% 2-wks prior). Low-cal carbonated

beverages and energy drinks saw HSD volume growth, while sports drinks was

broadly flat-LSD on a 4-wk rolling basis. Regular carbonated beverages continue

to lag, down 3.8% yoy on a 4-wk basis (-3.9% on a 2-wk basis).

n

NielsenIQ (including xAOC + Convenience & Amazon) data shows PepsiCo (PEP),

which is a major customer of Amcor (AMC), recorded a sequential increase in

volumes across 1 of the 6 tracked beverage categories over the last 4 weeks:

o

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