NOBA Bank Group (NOBA.ST): Updating estimates post Q2‘26

Research evidence excerpt

Equity Research

18 August 2026 | 5:47PM BST

NOBA Bank Group (NOBA.ST): Updating estimates post Q2’26

We update our estimates for NOBA following the release of 2Q26 results and

conference call, at which NOBA reported a Q2’26 net income of SEK 1,051mn, 3%

above Company-Compiled Consensus. Revenues came in slightly lower than

expected and costs a bit higher, while impairments were better than Consensus.

We highlight the following:

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We increase our Revenue estimates throughout our forecast period on the back

of higher Net Interest Income (c.3-4%) and lower Fee Income (c.-5-6%). We

forecast NII to grow ~10% in 2026 and ~9% in 2027, slightly lower than loan

book growth of 12% and 9% respectively over the same period. Management

guides for loan book growth of >10% annually.

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Coupled with unchanged Operating Expenses (we model a 2% increase in costs

y/y in 2026, in line with Visible Alpha Consensus Data), we expect the

cost-to-income ratio to decline gradually from ~23% in 2026E to <20% by 2029,

slightly slower than company guidance of 2H 2027.

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We forecast Credit Costs to hover at around 250bps going ahead, in the

mid-range of the normalized level of 2.5-3%, and c.5bps lower than consensus

expectations.

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We expect the CET1 ratio to remain above the lower-end of the medium-term

target range of 13-15% and land at 13.5% in 2026 and 14% in 2027. We model a

Sofie Peterzens

+44(20)7051-5283 |

Goldman Sachs International

Chris Hallam

+44(20)7552-2958 |

Goldman Sachs International

Benjamin Caven-Roberts

Goldman Sachs International

Andin Kour Sason

Goldman Sachs India SPL

Sachin Nayar

+44(20)7051-2598 |

Goldman Sachs International

Khushboo Mandani

+1(332)245-7978 |

Goldman Sachs India SPL

Eraldo Bausano

+44(20)7774-9801 |

Goldman Sachs International

payout ratio of 60% in 2026/27E and 70% thereafter.

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We lower our target P/E multiple to 11.5x (from 12.0x), reflecting a somewhat

more cautious outlook given the potential for higher funding costs, slower

growth under a higher-rate environment and NOBA’s relatively elevated NPL

ratio of c.15% with 46% coverage. That said, the shares continue to trade at a

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