Argentina: Budget Balance Back to a Surplus in July

Research evidence excerpt

Economics Research

18 August 2026 | 1:08PM EDT

Argentina: Budget Balance Back to a Surplus in July

Bottom Line: The government’s overall fiscal balance returned to a surplus in July

after it had printed its first deficit of the year in June. A ARS$2.96tn primary surplus

in the month, less interest on debt of ARS$2.72tn, led to an overall surplus of

ARS$245bn for the public sector. Government revenues grew 30.4% yoy with tax

revenues up by a slightly lower 29.6%, below the 33.8% yoy inflation print in July.

During the month, revenue collection benefited from the granted extension for filing

and payment of annual income tax returns. Total expenditure, in turn, grew by 26.9%

yoy, with primary spending up by a lower 24.4% yoy in July. Spending was pressured

by the seasonality of interest payments which rise every January and July.

Sergio Armella

+1(212)357-9077 |

Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

In the first seven months of 2026, the cumulative primary surplus reached 0.9% of

GDP, while the overall balance surplus stood at 0.1% of GDP. For the trailing 12

months, the overall balance inched backed into positive territory in July having

turned negative in June for the first time since 2024. The fiscal baseline seems back

on track with the IMF program after the primary balance through June seems to have

missed the performance target established in the latest review. In general,

disciplined spending has been forced to offset softer government revenues in 2026.

Year-to-date, total government revenues have fallen 4.6% in real terms, and total

expenditure is down by 2.8%.

DETAILS

1. The government’s primary fiscal balance registered a ARS$2.96tn surplus in July.

Interest on debt tracked at ARS$2.72tn, leading to an ARS$245bn overall

balance surplus in the month.

2. For the trailing 12 months, the primary balance remained at around 1.2% of GDP

in July and the overall balance edged up to slightly above zero (+0.02% of GDP).

3. In July, government revenues rose by 30.4% yoy with tax revenue up by a milder

29.6% yoy and social security contributions rising by 28.6% yoy. Revenue from

sources linked to economic activity, such as income taxes, financial transactions

…