Peru: Another Real Activity Contraction in June on Primary Activities Disruptions; Activity Declined in Q2

Research evidence excerpt

Economics Research

18 August 2026 | 2:43PM EDT

Peru: Another Real Activity Contraction in June on Primary Activities

Disruptions; Activity Declined in Q2

BOTTOM LINE: Real GDP as measured by INEI’s monthly indicator rose by 1.8% yoy

in June, below the Bloomberg consensus for 2.3% yoy. The seasonally-adjusted

series (released today) points to a softer 1.6% yoy sa expansion. Under the original

series, sequential real activity retrenched by 0.2% mom sa, up from a softer -1.1%

mom sa print in the previous month. The headline decline was mostly dragged by

very weak agriculture after localized disruptions and the lingering drag from fishing

disruptions on seafood manufacturing. Conversely, construction and mining were

solid. Signals from services were mixed. We expect an activity rebound in July. During

the second quarter, economic activity contracted by 0.1% qoq sa, slowing from a

strong 1.0% qoq sa in Q1. With the June reading, the growth carryover for 3Q26

starts at -0.5% qoq sa and for the full of 2026 at 1.9%. Folding in the downside

surprise, we downgrade our forecast for Q2 growth by 40bp to 2.4% yoy. We see the

risks to our 2026 growth forecast of 3.0% as balanced, with upside from improving

business sentiment after the presidential election outcome but downside from

possible El Niño-related disruptions which tend to have persistent effects on the

primary sector.

Santiago Tellez

+1(212)855-0367 |

Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

KEY NUMBERS:

Real GDP (June): +1.8% yoy (-0.2% mom sa; +1.6% yoy sa) vs. consensus at 2.3% yoy

and GS at 2.8% yoy.

Unemployment Rate (July): 4.7% vs. consensus at 4.9%; 4.9% one year prior.

DETAILS:

1. Monthly real GDP declined by 0.2% mom sa in June, up from a -1.2% mom sa

print in the previous month (revised down by 10bp). The May activity level was

revised up by 80bp. On a quarterly basis, activity contracted by 0.2% qoq sa

during the second quarter, down from a strong 1.0% qoq sa in Q1. With the June

print, the growth carryover for 3Q2026 starts at -0.5% qoq sa and for the full of

2026 at 2.0%.

2. On an annual basis, real GDP expanded by 1.8% yoy, below the Bloomberg

consensus for 2.3% yoy.…