Xiaomi Corp. (1810.HK): 2Q26 Review: Smartphone GPM Beats, EV Beta Weighs, New Catalyst Window Opens; Buy

Research evidence excerpt

Equity Research

19 August 2026 | 2:30AM HKT

Xiaomi Corp. (1810.HK)

2Q26 Review: Smartphone GPM Beats, EV Beta Weighs, New Catalyst Window Opens;

Buy

1810.HK

12m Price Target: HK$39.00

Price: HK$26.18

Upside: 49.0%

Ahead of Xiaomi’s SkyNomad model launch in early Sep, Xiaomi

delivered 2Q26 results that are largely inline with expectations.

Revenue declined -6% yoy (largely inline with GSe/Visible Alpha

Consensus Data), while adj. net profit fell -43% yoy to Rmb6.2bn

(4% above GSe/2% below consensus) as higher-than-expected fair

value gains and other income offset lower operating income from

higher-than-expected OPEX.

By segment, we view smartphone GPM at 8.5% as the biggest

positive surprise which demonstrates Xiaomi’s solid execution in

balancing shipments (-26% yoy), ASP (+26% yoy) and GPM against

rising BOM costs; we raise 2026-28E smartphone GPM to

8.9%/8.9%/9.5% (vs. 8.1%/8.5%/9.3% prior) and expect 2026E

GPM may bottom out in 3Q26E. That said, the negative beta in the

auto industry weighed on smart EV revenue and profitability;

revenue from EV, AI and other initiatives grew +17% yoy (5%/8%

below GSe/consensus) on lower ASP, and segment GPM fell below

20% for the first time since 4Q24 (including some margin drag from

AI revenue); accordingly, we cut our 2026-28E EV, AI, and other

initiatives revenue by 6-12% as we expect lower shipment volume

(450k/740k/960k, respectively), and lower GPM by 1.1-1.4pp to

19.4%/20.0%/20.1% despite our confidence in SkyNomad’s

demand and profitability.

BUY

Timothy Zhao

Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.

Ronald Keung, CFA

Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.

Eunice Liu

Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.

Key Data _____________________________________

Market cap: HK$674.8bn / $86.0bn

Enterprise value: HK$504.7bn / $64.3bn

3m ADTV: HK$5.0bn / $643.5mn

China

China Internet Verticals

M&A Rank: 3

Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: No

GS Forecast __________________________________

12/26E

12/27E

12/28E

Revenue (Rmb mn) New

457,286.6 433,007.4

12/25

528,650.3

613,187.0

Revenue (Rmb mn) Old

457,286.6 450,450.1

540,245.9

636,209.9

EBITDA (Rmb mn)

56,657.7

36,076.4

45,589.8

56,388.9

EPS (Rmb) New

1.47

0.90

1.19

1.53

EPS (Rmb) Old

1.47

0.96

1.25

1.63

14.7

P/E (X)

…