Colombia: GDP Growth Accelerated in 2Q26; Strong Domestic Demand Consistent with Slightly Positive Output Gap

Research evidence excerpt

Economics Research

18 August 2026 | 1:11PM EDT

Colombia: GDP Growth Accelerated in 2Q26; Strong Domestic Demand

Consistent with Slightly Positive Output Gap

BOTTOM LINE: The national accounts data for Q2 showed that activity momentum

firmed sharply from an around-trend pace in the previous quarter, although

high-frequency data points to a softening towards the end of the quarter. Real GDP

growth accelerated to 1.3% qoq sa during the first quarter of 2026, slightly above

the Bloomberg consensus for 1.2% qoq sa and the 0.6% qoq sa in the previous

quarter (revised up by 5bp). The composition was strong, with the headline reading

boosted by fixed investment and consumption—especially public. Domestic demand

grew by a robust 2.4% qoq sa—as did imports—but exports contracted. The supply

side featured rebounding construction and strong arts & leisure, energy, and public

administration, with the last three sectors likely boosted by transitory factors. In

levels, the seasonally and calendar-adjusted real GDP series printed 0.23pt above

the central bank’s forecast from the July MPR, although the 1Q26 level was

downgraded modestly. With the June monthly ISE activity print, the carryover for

3Q26 starts at -0.2% qoq sa, and we are tracking a flat print in July.

Santiago Tellez

+1(212)855-0367 |

Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

Activity in Q2 aligned with our expectation, but we are revising down our Q3 growth

forecast by a large 60bp to 0.0% qoq sa on the back of the projected impact of the

August earthquake on energy-demand, coffee exports and transport disruptions.

This mechanically lowers our 2026 growth forecast by 20bp to 2.5%, with risks skewed to

the downside.

Real GDP growth accelerated visibly in Q2 on the back of what we view as temporary

factors which should dissipate in Q3, including World Cup-related spending (arts &

leisure), elevated electricity demand due to high temperatures (energy generation),

the organization of the presidential elections, and retroactive minimum wage

payments to public teachers (public administration). We anticipate softness in ex-oil

refining activities given tight financial conditions. On the more constructive side,

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