Wizz Air: Managing through breakneck capacity growth

Research evidence excerpt

10 August 2026

Alex Irving, CFA

European Transport

Wizz Air Holdings Plc

Antoine Madre

Rating

Market-Perform

Price Target

WIZZ.LN

1,400.00 GBp

Wizz Air: Managing through breakneck capacity growth

Wizz Air is managing its eye-watering capacity growth remarkably well. Yes, unit revenues are

under pressure (-8% YoY in Q1 and seen down LSD in Q2), as should be expected at mid-20%

capacity increases. Unit cost is rising with high fuel and depreciation charges, but other line

items (staff, airports, overhead) are being held back by the same high growth. Management

is determined to stick to the plan this year, which combined with high fuel prices and ongoing

GTF issues leads us to expect €500m+ in net losses, as the company takes a big step towards

rehabilitation.

The quarter: Topline-driven miss, guide cut. Wizz Air’s FQ1 ‘27 net loss was €198m,

worse than the €142m loss in consensus. RASK fell -8% YoY, a function of the company’s

extraordinarily high capacity growth (ASK +15% / seats +25%), and in line with expectations

from mid-June of RASK down mid-high single digit. CASKx fell 2% YoY, with more

influencable lines better but depreciation racing higher, as previously flagged.

Close Date

7 Aug 2026

WIZZ.LN Close Price (GBp)

1,095.00

Price Target (GBp)

1,400.00

Upside/(Downside)

28%

52-Week Range

1,453.00/832.00

EDME

1,638.96

FYE

Mar

Div Yield

NA

Market Cap (GBP) (M)

1,133

EV (GBp) (M)

6,435

Performance

YTD

1M

6M

12M

Absolute (%)

(14.2)

(7.8)

(22.0)

(21.0)

EDME (%)

11.5

2.9

6.5

21.3

Doing extremely well to manage capacity whiplash. Genius or reckless? The jury is still

Relative (%)

(25.6) (10.6) (28.5) (42.3)

out on Wizz Air’s mid-20%s seat capacity growth this year. That even understates the growth Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis.

in its footprint, given the high level of immature capacity following the closure of Abu Dhabi.

Wizz’s refocus on Europe is seeing new routes spring up like mushrooms after the rain. Ops

Price Performance, 1YR

deserves a lot of credit here: this could have gone dreadfully wrong, given the complexity to

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1500p

be managed. FY’27 will still be painful, but has avoided going tech.

1700

1400p

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