ADES 2Q26 - Shelf-driven growth broadly in line; margin dilution as expected, guidance reiterated

Research evidence excerpt

10 August 2026

Abdessamad Raghibi, Ph.D.

MENA Energy

ADES

Guillaume Delaby

Rating

Outperform

Specialist Sales

Price Target

Gareth Williams

ADES.AB

26.17 SAR

ADES 2Q26 - Shelf-driven growth broadly in line; margin dilution

as expected, guidance reiterated

ADES delivered 2Q26 revenue of SAR 2,153m, up a strong 36% yoy on the Shelf Drilling

consolidation and robust offshore performance, though 2% below Company consensus (2%

above our estimate). EBITDA of SAR 1,014m grew 30% yoy and came in broadly in line,1%

above consensus, 1% below our estimate.

Diversification is paying off. Revenue growth of 36% yoy confirms the Shelf Drilling

acquisition and international diversification (India, West & Central Africa, Southeast Asia) are

delivering as promised, with the offshore segment now 84% of group revenue versus 80%

a year ago. Fleet utilization remained industry-leading at 97.6% in 1H26. Backlog stood

at a record SAR 34.67bn (4.54-year average tenor). The pending Saipem shallow-water

acquisition (~$285m, closing 3Q26) adds five premium jackups and marks ADES's entry

into Mexico, further scaling the platform. FY26 EBITDA guidance of SAR 4.50-4.87bn was

reiterated despite the disruption.

Close Date

6 Aug 2026

ADES.AB Close Price (SAR)

17.69

Price Target (SAR)

26.17

Upside/(Downside)

48%

52-Week Range

19.94/14.27

ASIAX

1,914.02

FYE

Dec

Div Yield

2.5%

Market Cap (SAR) (M)

19,973

EV (SAR) (M)

38,063

Performance

YTD

1M

6M

12M

Absolute (%)

1.4

(8.2)

(5.8)

18.1

ASIAX (%)

17.0

(1.7)

8.0

30.6

Price of diversification. EBITDA margin compressed to 47.1% from 54.4% a year ago Relative (%)

(15.6)

(6.5) (13.8) (12.5)

(missing consensus's 45.9% to the upside, but 3% below our more optimistic 48.6% estimate), Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis.

reflecting the anticipated drag from consolidating Shelf's lower-margin fleet. Net profit fell

30.5% yoy to SAR 133m, missing both consensus (SAR 134m) and our estimate (SAR 135m) Price Performance, 1YR

modestly, and EPS of SAR 0.120 was down 30% yoy. Regional conflict-related rig suspensions SAR21

2200

in Qatar and Saudi Arabia weighed more heavily on 2Q than 1Q, alongside a non-recurring SAR20

2000

SAR19

…