MENA Energy/Utilities - Dubai macro cross readings into DEWA & Empower ahead of 2Q

Research evidence excerpt

MENA Energy/Utilities - Dubai macro cross readings into DEWA & Empower ahead of 2Q

3 July 2026

MENA Energy

MENA Energy/Utilities - Dubai macro cross readings into DEWA &

Empower ahead of 2Q

We publish ahead of DEWA and Empower’s 2Q results with a cautious near-term read: UAE Abdessamad Raghibi, Ph.D.

+212 5 22 86 79 41 macro and Dubai real-estate indicators have clearly softened, with UAE PMI easing to 52.6 in

abdessamad.raghibi@bernsteinsg.com May-26 and the Dubai property market already showing signs of slowdown. But this is the UAE,

soft patches rarely go unsupported for long, and with Dubai’s 2026 budget set at AED 99.5bn

Marios Pastou (+15% yoy) alongside a broader federal step-up in spending, we expect 2Q/3Q softness to

+44 20 7676 6881

marios.pastou@bernsteinsg.com give way to a firmer recovery by 4Q.

Specialist Sales UAE macro: sovereign support offsets softer activity. UAE activity has lost altitude since

May-2024: the post-Covid impulse is fading, with May-2026 PMI at 52.6, below its 54.3 long-

Gareth Williams run average but stil labove the crititcal threshold of 50, and new orders near a 62-month low.

+44 20 7762 5256

gareth.b.williams@bernsteinsg.com Crucially, the sovereign isn't standing still: Dubai has rolled out over AED2bn (~$600m) in

stimulus since April 2026 alone; fee deferrals, customs grace-period extensions, tourism levy

pauses, while the federal 2026 budget jumped ~15% YoY to AED92.4bn. This is a state that

spends to smooth cycles, not one retrenching.

Real estate: leading indicator, but Empower is maturing. Historically, Dubai real estate

has been the lead read-through for Empower’s connections, and, by proxy, DEWA load.

That signal is now less clean: Q1-26 sales transactions fell ~17% QoQ, suggesting

a pause after a violent cycle.