ADES – No, Saudi Will Not Delay Rig Resumption Notices Until 2027; Market is Tighter Than Expected

Research evidence excerpt

ADES – No, Saudi Will Not Delay Rig Resumption Notices Until 2027; Market is Tighter Than Expected

7 July 2026

Abdessamad Raghibi, Ph.D.

+212 5 22 86 79 41

MENA Energy abdessamad.raghibi@bernsteinsg.com

Guillaume DelabyADES

+33 1 42 13 62 29

Rating guillaume.delaby@bernsteinsg.com

Outperform Specialist Sales

Gareth Williams

Price Target +44 20 7762 5256

gareth.b.williams@bernsteinsg.com

ADES.AB 26.17 SAR

ADES – No, Saudi Will Not Delay Rig Resumption Notices Until

2027; Market is Tighter Than Expected

We publish a model update on ADES ahead of 2Q and post-Saipem KSA acquisition. The Saudi

Close Date 5 Jul 2026

offshore cycle appears to be turning sooner than expected. What was previously framed as a

ADES.AB Close Price (SAR) 19.00

2027 reactivation story is now being challenged by live rig recalls, renewed tendering activity

Price Target (SAR) 26.17

and a clearer gas-led demand impulse.

Upside/(Downside) 38%

What we previously thought (Saudi to lift suspensions in 2027). Our prior thesis had 52-Week Range 19.94/12.42

Aramco keeping offshore jack-ups cold-stacked into 2027, backed by consensus expectations ASIAX 1,979.72

of a global oil surplus post-Hormuz normalization, giving Aramco macro cover to delay FYE Dec

reactivation. Div Yield 2.3%

Market Cap (SAR) (M) 21,859

What we now realized (Saudi has already started recalling rigs). That thesis is being EV (SAR) (M) 39,948

overtaken by events. Aramco's working fleet has fallen to ~50-55 rigs from the Jan-24 peak Performance YTD 1M 6M 12M

of ~93, yet recalls are visibly underway. ADES received a resumption notice for Admarine 510 Absolute (%) 11.0 0.0 12.8 46.7

(Saudi redeployment, 2026 start), with both ADES and Arabian Drilling signaling confidence in ASIAX (%) 21.1 0.2 16.2 38.4

full resumption.