Adnoc Gas - Anchored at Home, Tested Abroad. Outperform

Research evidence excerpt

Adnoc Gas - Anchored at Home, Tested Abroad. Outperform

21 July 2026

Abdessamad Raghibi, Ph.D.

+212 5 22 86 79 41

MENA Energy abdessamad.raghibi@bernsteinsg.com

Adnoc Gas Specialist Sales

Gareth Williams

Rating +44 20 7762 5256

Outperform gareth.b.williams@bernsteinsg.com

Price Target

ADNOCGAS.DH 4.09 AED (3.98 OLD)

Adnoc Gas - Anchored at Home, Tested Abroad. Outpefrom

We update our ADNOC Gas model ahead of 2Q results, reiterating our Outperform and raising

Close Date 20 Jul 2026

our PT by 3% to AED4.09, driven by a stronger-than-expected 2Q outlook, with domestic gas

ADNOCGAS.DH Close Price (AED) 3.30

the key support.

Price Target (AED) 4.09

Near the High End of 2Q Guidance. We forecast 2Q net income of $579m, slightly below Upside/(Downside) 24%

consensus of $590m and close to the upper end of ADNOC Gas’ guidance range. Our view 52-Week Range 3.76/3.12

reflects three positives. First, ADNOC appears to have remained one of the more active LNG ASIAX 1,866.01

operators through Hormuz since the June 17 MoU, with an estimated 8-12 of roughly 40 LNG FYE Dec

crossings UAE-linked. Second, UAE domestic gas demand stayed resilient despite regional Div Yield 5.3%

disruption, with no reported unmet demand and non-oil PMI remaining above 50 into June/July. Market Cap (AED) (M) 253,280

Third, sulfur markets remain exceptionally tight, with prices rising from roughly $100/mt to EV (AED) (M) 64,763

more than $1,200/mt after Hormuz-related disruption removed an estimated 40,000-50,000 Performance YTD 1M 6M 12M

mt/day of trade. Even limited ADNOC sulfur cargoes in 2Q could therefore offset a meaningful Absolute (%) (7.0) (4.1) (6.8) 0.0

share of lost volumes at materially higher pricing. ASIAX (%) 14.1 (8.9) 9.5 26.8

Relative (%) (21.1) 4.8 (16.3) (26.8)

If “Zero Exports” Prevails.