European Airlines X Airports: Cheaper fuel on the horizon, but greater capacity risk? (Jun tracker)

Research evidence excerpt

European Airlines X Airports: Cheaper fuel on the horizon, but greater capacity risk? (Jun tracker)

23 June 2026

European Airlines X Airports

European Airlines X Airports: Cheaper fuel on the horizon, but

greater capacity risk? (Jun tracker)

June has been an eventful month for the sector, with peace prospects improving and fuel Alex Irving, CFA

+44 20 7676 7044 prices falling. Jet fuel is now only 25-30% above pre-conflict lows. The key question for

alex.irving@bernsteinsg.com now is whether demand will remain resilient, and whether airlines will adjust capacity

plans if peace holds. So far, summer schedules remain broadly unchanged ex-Middle East,

Victor Acitores as demand, particularly on long-haul, remains strong. The period after summer is more

+34 915 893 901

victor.acitores@bernsteinsg.com uncertain. Lower fuel prices could reduce the need for post-summer capacity cuts. Absence

of potential summer capacity cuts would be positive for airports supporting peak-season

Tobias Fromme traffic.

+44 20 7676 6875

tobias.fromme@bernsteinsg.com Growth plans broadly unchanged. Jet fuel prices and the recent conflict have put

pressure on underlying airline economics, yet capacity plans remain largely unchanged.

Antoine Madre Demand has held up well so far, leading airlines to make only limited capacity reductions. +33 1 58 98 74 52

antoine.madre@bernsteinsg.com Intra-European capacity is currently scheduled to grow by 6% in Q2 and 7% in Q3, as Wizz

especially piles on capacity. On long-haul markets, summer capacity is set to increase by

Specialist Sales 1% across the North Atlantic, 7% on South Atlantic routes, and 9-12% to Asia. The Middle

East and Africa remains the main area of weakness, with Emirates' capacity down 28%

Sara Bellenda