Ryanair Rising, Part VI: A decade-plus of growth still ahead

Research evidence excerpt

Ryanair Rising, Part VI: A decade-plus of growth still ahead

ropean levels over the last 20 years, a trend that shows all signs of continuing. Meanwhile,

Ryanair's expansion has not only captured market share, but also helped grow the market itself, accounting for 59% of all net

seat growth in intra-European aviation between the 2008 cycle peak and 2025. This highlights the stronger growth in leisure

and visiting friends and relatives travel over the more corporate skew at network airlines.

• Intra-Europe demand outlook: Structural growth outweighs population decline. European aviation should continue to

enjoy structural demand growth, supported by rising penetration despite demographic headwinds. Western Europe should

remain the dominant aviation market, given both a larger population and higher average incomes. However, faster growing

Central and Eastern European economies should continue to converge in flight penetration, with trips per capita rising

from 1.3 today to 2.6 by 2045: this would be around 70% of Western European levels. Although Europe’s population is set

to decline from the 2030s, we still expect passenger trips to grow at a 2.1% CAGR through 2045, as a higher propensity

to travel more than offsets demographic pressures. In the nearer term, leisure and transfer traffic remain the key demand

drivers and should more than compensate for slower-growth business travel, supporting our overall air traffic demand

growth estimate of c. 3.4% CAGR between 2025 and 2030.

• Demand growth is structural and Ryanair is built to win. European aviation demand should continue to grow for decades

yet, driven by rising travel penetration, the catch-up of Central and Eastern Europe, and the ongoing shift toward leisure

travel.