Estimates Cut on Cost Pressure

Research evidence excerpt

Estimates Cut on Cost Pressure

Idea

August 2, 2026 10:54 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley Australia Limited+MFortescue Metals Group Ltd. | Asia Pacific Rahul Anand, CFA

Equity Analyst

Estimates Cut on Cost Pressure R.Anand@morganstanley.comMichael A Stancliff +61 2 9770-1136

Research Associate

What’s Changed Michael.Stancliff@morganstanley.com +61 2 9770-9253

Fortescue Metals Group Ltd. (FMG.AX) From To

Price Target A$17.25 A$15.55

FMG's outlook points to a materially weaker earnings profile.

Hematite costs reset ~13% higher, Iron Bridge’s ramp slipped Fortescue Metals Group Ltd. (FMG.AX, FMG AU)

again and capital requirements remain elevated. We cut EPS Australia Materials | Australia

estimates 21% for FY27 and 18% for FY28, and our PT ~10% to A Stock Rating Underweight

Industry View Attractive

$15.55. Stay UW on declining yields and rich valuation. Price target A$15.55

Shr price, close (Jul 31, 2026) A$18.51

More work index per tonne likely lifting the structural cost base: FMG delivered 52-Week Range A$23.38-17.68

Sh out, dil, curr (mn) 3,084

record FY26 shipments of 201.3Mt and hematite C1 costs of US$18.74/wmt, within Mkt cap, curr (mn) US$40,085

guidance. However, FY27 C1 guidance of US$20.50-21.75/wmt was ~7.8% above VA EV, curr (mn) US$41,168

Avg daily trading value (mn) A$131

cons at the midpoint and~13% above FY26, or ~8.5% higher adjusting for ~US$0.80/

Fiscal Year Ending 06/25 06/26e 06/27e 06/28e

t FX impact, with the balance from higher diesel, wages, and inflation. We think the

Revenue, net (US$ mn) 15,602 16,959 14,671 15,332

cost reset is also consistent with rising work index across hematite operations, EBITDA (US$ mn) 7,693 8,362 5,916 6,554

including longer haul distances, likely increasing absolute diesel consumption.