Spot Base Consensus: 31 July 2026

Research evidence excerpt

Spot Base Consensus: 31 July 2026

Idea

July 31, 2026 04:04 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley Australia Limited+MAustralia Materials | Asia Pacific Rahul Anand, CFA

Equity Analyst

Spot Base Consensus: 31 July R.Anand@morganstanley.comMichael A Stancliff +61 2 9770-1136

Research Associate

Michael.Stancliff@morganstanley.com +61 2 9770-9253

Our weekly report compares spot-based valuation, cash flow,

and earnings metrics to current consensus and our base-case

values for all stocks under our coverage. Australia Materials

Asia Pacific

We compile the "Spot Base Consensus" report on a weekly basis to display spot Industry View Attractive

price scenario outcomes. All other assumptions from our base case models are

Recent Research:

unchanged. This provides context for current equity and commodity prices. The

Fortescue Metals Group Ltd.: 4QFY26: Iron

charts and tables below display the scenario outcomes.

Bridge miss comes through (in-line with MSe),

Methodology: We run spot commodity and currency prices through our models up US$750m impairment flagged. C1 cost guidance

to CY32, then switch to our longer-term base case price assumptions detailed here – 8% higher vs. cons. (31 Jul 2026)

metal&ROCK: The Price Deck – 3Q26: Micro Narratives, But Macro Matters (8 Jul Boss Energy Ltd: Updating Estimates and Price

2026). Target (30 Jul 2026)

Boss Energy Ltd: 4QFY26: Broadly in line, FY27

Exhibit 1: Spot vs. base case vs. consensus EBITDA forecasts

Guidance to be provided with new Honeymoon

50% Feasibility Study in August (29 Jul 2026)

40% PLS Group Ltd: 4QFY26: Higher FY27 sustaining

capex comes through. Rest broadly in-line with

30%

Cons. EW. (29 Jul 2026)

20% Mineral Resources Limited: Updating Estimates

10% (29 Jul 2026)

0% Rio Tinto Limited: Off the Call: 1HCY26 Results

(29 Jul 2026)

-10%

-20%