Spot Base Consensus: 31 July 2026

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M

Idea

July 31, 2026 04:04 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley Australia Limited+

Australia Materials | Asia Pacific

Rahul Anand, CFA

Equity Analyst

Spot Base Consensus: 31 July

2026

Michael A Stancliff

Research Associate

Our weekly report compares spot-based valuation, cash flow,

and earnings metrics to current consensus and our base-case

values for all stocks under our coverage.

Australia Materials

Asia Pacific

Industry View

We compile the "Spot Base Consensus" report on a weekly basis to display spot

price scenario outcomes. All other assumptions from our base case models are

Attractive

Recent Research:

unchanged. This provides context for current equity and commodity prices. The

Fortescue Metals Group Ltd.: 4QFY26: Iron

charts and tables below display the scenario outcomes.

Bridge miss comes through (in-line with MSe),

Methodology: We run spot commodity and currency prices through our models up

US$750m impairment flagged. C1 cost guidance

to CY32, then switch to our longer-term base case price assumptions detailed here –

8% higher vs. cons. (31 Jul 2026)

metal&ROCK: The Price Deck – 3Q26: Micro Narratives, But Macro Matters (8 Jul

Boss Energy Ltd: Updating Estimates and Price

2026).

Target (30 Jul 2026)

Boss Energy Ltd: 4QFY26: Broadly in line, FY27

Exhibit 1:

Spot vs. base case vs. consensus EBITDA forecasts

Guidance to be provided with new Honeymoon

50%

Feasibility Study in August (29 Jul 2026)

PLS Group Ltd: 4QFY26: Higher FY27 sustaining

40%

capex comes through. Rest broadly in-line with

30%

Cons. EW. (29 Jul 2026)

20%

Mineral Resources Limited: Updating Estimates

10%

(29 Jul 2026)

0%

Rio Tinto Limited: Off the Call: 1HCY26 Results

(29 Jul 2026)

-10%

-20%

Spot vs Base EBITDA Ex-ASX 100 Res

Spot vs Base EBITDA ASX 100 Res

ILU CY26

WHC FY27

PDN FY27

BOE FY27

RIO CY26

LYC FY27

SFR FY27

BHP FY27

IGO FY27

DRR FY27

FMG FY27

S32 FY27

PLS FY27

MIN FY27

-30%

Consensus vs Base EBITDA

Source: Refinitiv consensus estimates, Morgan Stanley Research.

For charts on spot earnings, multiples and FCF, please see below.

Exhibit 2:

Code

Spot scen.

(A$/sh)

Last close

(A$/sh)

Difference

(%)

Spot DCF valuation vs. last close

…