Spot Base Consensus: 24 July 2026

Research evidence excerpt

Spot Base Consensus: 24 July 2026

Idea

July 24, 2026 09:18 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley Australia Limited+MAustralia Materials | Asia Pacific Rahul Anand, CFA

Equity Analyst

Spot Base Consensus: 24 July R.Anand@morganstanley.comMichael A Stancliff +61 2 9770-1136

Research Associate

Michael.Stancliff@morganstanley.com +61 2 9770-9253

Our weekly report compares spot-based valuation, cash flow,

and earnings metrics to current consensus and our base-case

values for all stocks under our coverage. Australia Materials

Asia Pacific

We compile the "Spot Base Consensus" report on a weekly basis to display spot Industry View Attractive

price scenario outcomes. All other assumptions from our base case models are

Recent Research:

unchanged. This provides context for current equity and commodity prices. The

Sandfire Resources Ltd: 4QFY26: Prodn beats

charts and tables below display the scenario outcomes.

MSe & cons. Costs in-line with cons, +2% vs

Methodology: We run spot commodity and currency prices through our models up MSe. FY27 guide ~5% lower at mid-point. EW

to CY32, then switch to our longer-term base case price assumptions detailed here – (23 Jul 2026)

metal&ROCK: The Price Deck – 3Q26: Micro Narratives, But Macro Matters (8 Jul Lynas Rare Earths: Weak 4QFY26 production/

2026). sales. HRE plant capex higher. We continue to

see consensus ramp-up profile as too

Exhibit 1: Spot vs. base case vs. consensus EBITDA forecasts

aggressive. EW (21 Jul 2026)

50% Paladin Energy Ltd: Strong 4Q production/sales

40% but '27 guide ~5% lower vs. cons. Costs higher,

but capex lower. (21 Jul 2026)

30%

South32 Ltd: 4QFY26 Prodn: In-line EBITDA for

20% FY26; Aus Manganese impacts flagged for '27,

10% cost guidances to follow. (19 Jul 2026)

0% Australia Macro+: The Future of Work