China and the Miners

Research evidence excerpt

China and the Miners

Idea

July 31, 2026 10:44 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley Australia Limited+MAustralia Materials | Asia Pacific Rahul Anand, CFA

Equity Analyst

China and the Miners R.Anand@morganstanley.comMichael A Stancliff +61 2 9770-1136

Research Associate

Michael.Stancliff@morganstanley.com +61 2 9770-9253

Our monthly report summarizes key data/charts from China to

give investors quick insights into China's macroenvironment and

its demand for mineral resources.

China view – Faster Budget Rollout to Lift 2H Growth: Our China economics team

notes that June activity growth was undershot at 4.3%, missing consensus and Australia Materials

Asia Pacific

Beijing's target, leading to a 20bps cut to the full–year GDP forecast to 4.6%. The Industry View Attractive

key drags were, slower infrastructure push after 1Q front-loading, oil drag on

Recent research:

refining and petrochemical production, and softer consumption on faded trade-in

Fortescue Metals Group Ltd.: 4QFY26: Iron

effects, a weak job market, and lingering property drag. The team notes policy focus

Bridge miss comes through (in-line with MSe),

should stay on AI and energy infrastructure, not consumption, amid intensifying US-

US$750m impairment flagged. C1 cost guidance

China tech rivalry. A supplementary budget looks unlikely, with ~Rmb2tn of in-

8% higher vs. cons. (31 Jul 2026)

budget fiscal impulse still available for 2H. They expect modestly firmer sequential

Boss Energy Ltd: Updating Estimates and Price

growth in 2H, supported by faster budget deployment and normalizing oil prices

Target (30 Jul 2026)

(see here).

Boss Energy Ltd: 4QFY26: Broadly in line, FY27

Macro – Property downturn extends into 3Q: China’s IP was 5.3% YoY in June (May Guidance to be provided with new Honeymoon