REAL-TIME GLOBAL RESEARCH
Spot Base Consensus: 17 July 2026
Research evidence excerpt
Spot Base Consensus: 17 July 2026
Idea
July 17, 2026 10:25 PM GMT
Morgan Stanley Australia Limited+MAustralia Materials | Asia Pacific Rahul Anand, CFA
Equity Analyst
Spot Base Consensus: 17 July R.Anand@morganstanley.comMichael A Stancliff +61 2 9770-1136
Research Associate
Michael.Stancliff@morganstanley.com +61 2 9770-9253
Our weekly report compares spot-based valuation, cash flow,
and earnings metrics to current consensus and our base-case
values for all stocks under our coverage. Australia Materials
Asia Pacific
We compile the "Spot Base Consensus" report on a weekly basis to display spot Industry View Attractive
price scenario outcomes. All other assumptions from our base case models are
Recent Research:
unchanged. This provides context for current equity and commodity prices. The
Sustainability & Metals & Mining: Rare Earths:
charts and tables below display the scenario outcomes.
Where Is The Money Flowing? (16 Jul 2026)
Methodology: We run spot commodity and currency prices through our models up BHP Group Ltd: 4QFY26: Coal beats; Cu/IO
to CY32, then switch to our longer-term base case price assumptions detailed here – broadly in line vs Cons. ND 5% ahead vs Cons.
metal&ROCK: The Price Deck – 3Q26: Micro Narratives, But Macro Matters (8 Jul FY27 guide in line vs Cons, ~2% softer vs MSe
2026). (15 Jul 2026)
First Quantum Minerals Ltd and Rio Tinto Plc:
Exhibit 1: Spot vs. base case vs. consensus EBITDA forecasts
Taca Taca - stake sale on the cards? (15 Jul 2026)
50% Rio Tinto Limited: 2QCY26 Prodn: Soft Cu &
40% Simandou. EBITDA impacts -1.2% with positive
price revisions. Stay UW, Prefer BHP. (14 Jul
30%
2026)
20% Investor Presentation: Asia Summer School:
10% Australia Materials (9 Jul 2026)
0% Metals & Mining: 2Q26 Production Previews –
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