Spot Base Consensus: 17 July 2026

研报英文原文证据摘录

Spot Base Consensus: 17 July 2026

Idea

July 17, 2026 10:25 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley Australia Limited+MAustralia Materials | Asia Pacific Rahul Anand, CFA

Equity Analyst

Spot Base Consensus: 17 July R.Anand@morganstanley.comMichael A Stancliff +61 2 9770-1136

Research Associate

Michael.Stancliff@morganstanley.com +61 2 9770-9253

Our weekly report compares spot-based valuation, cash flow,

and earnings metrics to current consensus and our base-case

values for all stocks under our coverage. Australia Materials

Asia Pacific

We compile the "Spot Base Consensus" report on a weekly basis to display spot Industry View Attractive

price scenario outcomes. All other assumptions from our base case models are

Recent Research:

unchanged. This provides context for current equity and commodity prices. The

Sustainability & Metals & Mining: Rare Earths:

charts and tables below display the scenario outcomes.

Where Is The Money Flowing? (16 Jul 2026)

Methodology: We run spot commodity and currency prices through our models up BHP Group Ltd: 4QFY26: Coal beats; Cu/IO

to CY32, then switch to our longer-term base case price assumptions detailed here – broadly in line vs Cons. ND 5% ahead vs Cons.

metal&ROCK: The Price Deck – 3Q26: Micro Narratives, But Macro Matters (8 Jul FY27 guide in line vs Cons, ~2% softer vs MSe

2026). (15 Jul 2026)

First Quantum Minerals Ltd and Rio Tinto Plc:

Exhibit 1: Spot vs. base case vs. consensus EBITDA forecasts

Taca Taca - stake sale on the cards? (15 Jul 2026)

50% Rio Tinto Limited: 2QCY26 Prodn: Soft Cu &

40% Simandou. EBITDA impacts -1.2% with positive

price revisions. Stay UW, Prefer BHP. (14 Jul

30%

2026)

20% Investor Presentation: Asia Summer School:

10% Australia Materials (9 Jul 2026)

0% Metals & Mining: 2Q26 Production Previews –