Spot Base Consensus: 7 August 2026

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August 7, 2026 02:08 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley Australia Limited+

Australia Materials | Asia Pacific

Rahul Anand, CFA

Equity Analyst

Spot Base Consensus: 7 August

2026

Shannon J Sinha

Equity Analyst

Michael A Stancliff

Research Associate

Our weekly report compares spot-based valuation, cash flow,

and earnings metrics to current consensus and our base-case

values for all stocks under our coverage.

We compile the "Spot Base Consensus" report on a weekly basis to display spot

Australia Materials

Asia Pacific

Industry View

price scenario outcomes. All other assumptions from our base case models are

unchanged. This provides context for current equity and commodity prices. The

charts and tables below display the scenario outcomes.

Attractive

Recent Research:

Methodology: We run spot commodity and currency prices through our models up

Australia Macro+ Meets Micro Podcast: FY26e

to CY32, then switch to our longer-term base case price assumptions detailed here –

Result Straw Poll – Australian Resources (5 Aug

metal&ROCK: The Price Deck – 3Q26: Micro Narratives, But Macro Matters (8 Jul

2026)

2026).

Australia Materials: Financials Preview: August

Exhibit 1:

2026 (5 Aug 2026)

Spot vs. base case vs. consensus EBITDA forecasts

Nickel Industries: Neutral on NIC (4 Aug 2026)

50%

Fortescue Metals Group Ltd.: Estimates Cut on

40%

Cost Pressure (2 Aug 2026)

30%

Fortescue Metals Group Ltd.: 4QFY26: Iron

Bridge miss comes through (in-line with MSe),

20%

US$750m impairment flagged. C1 cost guidance

10%

8% higher vs. cons. (31 Jul 2026)

0%

Boss Energy Ltd: Updating Estimates and Price

Target (30 Jul 2026)

-10%

-20%

Spot vs Base EBITDA Ex-ASX 100 Res

Spot vs Base EBITDA ASX 100 Res

ILU CY26

WHC FY27

PDN FY27

BOE FY27

LYC FY27

RIO CY26

NIC CY26

IGO FY27

DRR FY27

BHP FY27

SFR FY27

FMG FY27

PLS FY27

MIN FY27

S32 FY27

-30%

Consensus vs Base EBITDA

Source: Refinitiv consensus estimates, Morgan Stanley Research.

For charts on spot earnings, multiples and FCF, please see below.

Exhibit 2:

Code

Spot scen.

(A$/sh)

Last close

(A$/sh)

Difference

(%)

Spot DCF valuation vs. last close

PLS

MIN

WHC

BOE

IGO

BHP

ILU

S32

FMG

PDN

DRR

…