Global Diversified Metals & Mining: 1H‘26 Previews – resilient earnings likely, capital allocation the focus amidst robust balance sheets

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Global Diversified Metals & Mining: 1H‘26 Previews – resilient earnings likely, capital allocation the focus amidst robust balance sheets

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23 Jul 2026 03:34:20 ET │ 30 pages

Global Diversified Metals & Mining

1H’26 Previews – resilient earnings likely, capital allocation the focus

amidst robust balance sheets

Ephrem Ravi AC

CITI'S TAKE +44-20-7986-2462

We have updated our models for BHP/RIO/S32 following the June quarter ephrem.ravi@citi.com

production results and see the financial results reflecting stronger metal Krishan M Agarwal

prices lifting earnings. Our cumulative EBITDA estimates for three stocks is

expected to deliver 26% y/y increase for first six months of 2026, with bulk +44-020-7986-4092

of the increase coming from copper and aluminium exposure, offsetting the krishan.agarwal@citi.com

flattish EBITDA development for iron ore business. The results are likely to Ijeoma Ihuegbu

further reiterate the narrative of earnings mix evolution in favor of base +44-207-986-3914

metals with the share of iron ore comfortably below 50% for BHP/RIO.

Earnings resilience is likely a key enabler for solid balance sheets ijeoma.ihuegbu@citi.com

AC(ND/EBITDA below 1x), and together with monetization of infrastructure Thiago Ojea

assets (BHP), by-product streaming (BHP) and aluminium exit (S32), have +61-2-8225-2404

raised the investor expectations for higher cash returns. We see BHP/RIO thiago.ojea@citi.com

reiterating their capex guidance, while medium term growth debate is likely

to stay focused on copper. Jack Whelan

+61-2-8225-5979

Rio Tinto (1H’26 results, 28th July) — Our expectations are for $14.7 billion EBITDA, jack.whelan@citi.com

+27% y/y vs the VA consensus at $15.2 billion. Copper/Aluminium prices are the key