US pricing - July 2026: Domestic containerboard stable, SBS up

Research evidence excerpt

US pricing - July 2026: Domestic containerboard stable, SBS up

UpdateM

Risk Reward – Smurfit Westrock (SW.N)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS

Drivers Dec 2025 Dec 2026e Dec 2027e Dec 2028e

US export kraftliner price ($/t) (US$) 557 584 596 608

Europe testliner price (EUR/t) 667 690 711 730

US box price ($/bnsqft) (US$) 105 109 113 115

Europe box price (EUR/m2) 719 765 834 876

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

Containerboard and corrugated box prices RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Dec 2026e

Volumes of containerboard and corrugated Earlier US demand recovery and tighter 2.40 boxes industry supply accelerate margin recovery and EPS

Wood and waste paper prices volume inflection. (US$) 2.09 3.09

Energy costs Faster European capacity exits lift operating 2.40

Post M&A synergies rates and margins.

Faster deleveraging and stronger shareholder 5,045

EBITDA

GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE returns drive multiple expansion. (US$, mn) 4,973 5,121

RISKS TO DOWNSIDE 5,065

0-10% Latin America US volume recovery pushed out beyond 2026.

40-50% Europe ex UK Prolonged European oversupply keeps margins Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates

40-50% North America under pressure. Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

US consumerboard overcapacity and imports

weigh.

Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate

View explanation of regional hierarchies here

OWNERSHIP POSITIONING

MS ALPHA MODELS Inst. Owners, % Active 59.2%

HF Sector Long/Short Ratio 2x

1/5 24 Month 3/5 3 Month

BEST Horizon MOST Horizon HF Sector Net Exposure 5.2%

Source: Refinitiv, FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research; 1 is Refinitiv; MSPB Content. Includes certain hedge fund

the highest favored Quintile and 5 is the least favored exposures held with MSPB. Information may be

Quintile inconsistent with or may not reflect broader market

trends.