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US pricing - July 2026: Domestic containerboard stable, SBS up
研报英文原文证据摘录
US pricing - July 2026: Domestic containerboard stable, SBS up
UpdateM
Risk Reward – Smurfit Westrock (SW.N)
KEY EARNINGS INPUTS
Drivers Dec 2025 Dec 2026e Dec 2027e Dec 2028e
US export kraftliner price ($/t) (US$) 557 584 596 608
Europe testliner price (EUR/t) 667 690 711 730
US box price ($/bnsqft) (US$) 105 109 113 115
Europe box price (EUR/m2) 719 765 834 876
INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS
Containerboard and corrugated box prices RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Dec 2026e
Volumes of containerboard and corrugated Earlier US demand recovery and tighter 2.40 boxes industry supply accelerate margin recovery and EPS
Wood and waste paper prices volume inflection. (US$) 2.09 3.09
Energy costs Faster European capacity exits lift operating 2.40
Post M&A synergies rates and margins.
Faster deleveraging and stronger shareholder 5,045
EBITDA
GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE returns drive multiple expansion. (US$, mn) 4,973 5,121
RISKS TO DOWNSIDE 5,065
0-10% Latin America US volume recovery pushed out beyond 2026.
40-50% Europe ex UK Prolonged European oversupply keeps margins Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates
40-50% North America under pressure. Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research
US consumerboard overcapacity and imports
weigh.
Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate
View explanation of regional hierarchies here
OWNERSHIP POSITIONING
MS ALPHA MODELS Inst. Owners, % Active 59.2%
HF Sector Long/Short Ratio 2x
1/5 24 Month 3/5 3 Month
BEST Horizon MOST Horizon HF Sector Net Exposure 5.2%
Source: Refinitiv, FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research; 1 is Refinitiv; MSPB Content. Includes certain hedge fund
the highest favored Quintile and 5 is the least favored exposures held with MSPB. Information may be
Quintile inconsistent with or may not reflect broader market
trends.
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