2Q26 EBITDA in line, narrows FY guidance; reiterate Top Pick

Research evidence excerpt

2Q26 EBITDA in line, narrows FY guidance; reiterate Top Pick

Update

July 29, 2026 11:12 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+MSmurfit Westrock | North America Ioannis Masvoulas, CFA

Equity Analyst

2Q26 EBITDA in line, narrows Ioannis.Masvoulas@morganstanley.comRMB Morgan Stanley Proprietary Limited+ +44 20 7425-0427

Brian Morgan

Equity AnalystFY guidance; reiterate Top Pick Brian.Morgan3@rmbmorganstanley.com +27 11 587-0803

Smurfit Westrock (SW.N, SW US)

AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction

Top Pick

Unchanged In-line Modest revision higher

Paper & Packaging | United States of America

Impact to our thesis Financial results versus consensus Direction of next 12-month

consensus EPS Stock Rating Overweight

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research Industry View In-Line

Price target US$57.00

Shr price, close (Jul 28, 2026) US$50.80

Key Takeaways 52-Week Range US$52.64-32.73

Mkt cap, curr (mn) US$26,670

3Q26 EBITDA guidance softer on cost pressures, but mid-point of FY range is Net debt (12/26e) (mn)* US$12,574

EV, curr (mn)* US$39,578

broadly as expected

* = GAAP or approximated based on GAAP

Reassuring commentary on tight North America fundamentals (mill system sold

out) and ability to offset inflation throughout H2 and into 2027

2Q26 EBITDA of $1.14bn was broadly in line with consensus/MSe, as weaker

volumes in North America were offset by better volumes in Europe

SW announced $100/st hikes in NA containerboard/kraft; if implemented, we

estimate ~$850mn (14%) upside to 2027 MSe EBITDA, albeit with some inflation

offset.

With FY EBITDA guidance largely in line, a Q4 run-rate of >$5.9bn and further

upside in 2027 (vs consensus of $5.8bn), we reiterate our Top Pick.

3Q26 EBITDA guidance softer, but FY largely as expected: SW guided to 3Q26