European Pricing - July 2026: Kraftliner playing catch-up

Research evidence excerpt

European Pricing - July 2026: Kraftliner playing catch-up

Update

July 16, 2026 10:23 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+MPaper & Packaging | Europe Ioannis Masvoulas, CFA

Equity Analyst

European Pricing - July 2026 Ioannis.Masvoulas@morganstanley.comRMB Morgan Stanley Proprietary Limited+ +44 20 7425-0427

Brian Morgan

Equity AnalystEdition: Kraftliner playing catch- Brian.Morgan3@rmbmorganstanley.com +27 11 587-0803

Paper & Packagingup

Europe

Industry View In-Line

Key Takeaways

Germany July 2026 updates: Kraftiner up €60/t; brings YTD increase to €120/t,

catches up with France KLB and outpaces testliner YTD increase of €100/t.

KLB-TLB spread jumps to €210/t, at top end of historical range – risks skewed to

the downside in H2 should cost support fade and demand remain lacklustre.

Consumerboard: FBB flat following a mere €15/t increase in April as weak

operating rates and headwinds in net trade balance take hold.

Graphic: Prices mostly flat with the exception of newsprint, which was up €23/t –

margins remain under pressure.

Equity implications: SCA/Mondi most exposed to kraftliner; consumerboard

(Stora, Holmen) and graphic (Holmen, UPM) lack momentum.

European Containerboard charts

Exhibit 1: Testliner prices stay flat in Exhibit 2: German Kraftilner up

July having registered €100/t increase another €60/t, catching up with France

YTD and outpacing testliner

European Testliner European Kraftilner

950 1000

900 950

850 900

800 850

750 800

700 700

650 650

600 600

550 550

500 500

2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

TLB (LHS, EUR/t) KLB (LHS, EUR/t)

Source: Fastmarkets Source: Fastmarkets

Exhibit 3: Kraftliner-testliner spread Exhibit 4: Generic testliner spread has

rebounds near top end of range rebounded towards 2Q25 levels