2Q26 Preview: Cost-led price hikes give way to soft fundamentals

Research evidence excerpt

2Q26 Preview: Cost-led price hikes give way to soft fundamentals

IdeaPreviewMto earnings

Focus KPI Focus KPI Surprise Likely impact to consensus EPS*

Holmen AB HOLMb.ST

2Q26 Operating Profit In-line Modest revision lower

• Consumerboard weak industry fundamentals remain in focus

• Renewable Energy earnings to normalise as power prices moderate

• Wood Products to remain under pressure on margin squeeze

• Commentary on virgin fibre cost unwind

• Limited prospect of additional buyback in the near-term following completion of 3mn share repuchrase in May

SIG Group AG SIGNC.S

2Q26 adj. EBIT margin In-line Modest revision higher

• We expect SIG to unveil reassuring margin development thanks to progress on surcharge negotiations

• The moderation in polymer and aluminium costs should prove a tailwind in the coming quarters

• We expect SIG to track the upper half of 2026 growth guidance and top end of margin guidance

• We seek management commentary on business strategy and optimisation/cost initiatives

Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA SCAb.ST

2Q26 EBITDA Likely downside surprise Modest revision lower

• Q2 results to highlight continued weakness across Pulp and Wood (sawmilling)

• Commentary on possible kraftliner price hike will be important to watch

• Update on impact from storm Johannes

UPM-Kymmene Oyj UPM.HE

2H26 EBIT guidance Likely downside surprise Modest revision lower

• Our 2H26 EBIT forecast of €571mn is 10% below VA consensus; 2Q26 largely in line

• We project deleveraging to pick up pace with ND/EBITDA falling from 2.2x in 2Q26 to 1.7x in 4Q26

• Commentary on Leuna ramp up progress and Energy growth initiatives

• Seeking updated commentary on Graphic Paper JV and Plywood strategic review

Stora Enso Oyj STERV.HE

2Q26 adjusted EBIT In-line Largely unchanged