US pricing - June 2026: Containerboard up another $50/st; Reiterate SW at Overweight

Research evidence excerpt

US pricing - June 2026: Containerboard up another $50/st; Reiterate SW at Overweight

Update

June 21, 2026 11:21 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+MSmurfit Westrock | North America Ioannis Masvoulas, CFA

Equity Analyst

US pricing - June 2026: Ioannis.Masvoulas@morganstanley.comRMB Morgan Stanley Proprietary Limited+ +44 20 7425-0427

Brian Morgan

Equity AnalystContainerboard up another Brian.Morgan3@rmbmorganstanley.com +27 11 587-0803

Smurfit Westrock (SW.N, SW US)$50/st; Reiterate SW at

Paper & Packaging | United States of America

Stock Rating OverweightOverweight Industry View In-Line

Price target US$57.00

US containerboard tightness paves the way for second $50/st Shr52-Weekprice,Rangeclose (Jun 18, 2026) US$52.64-32.73US$44.20

price increase (+$100/st YTD), offering greater conviction on H2 Mkt cap, curr (mn) US$23,270

Net debt (12/26e) (mn)* US$12,619

margin expansion prospects. Superior US packaging EV, curr (mn)* US$36,178

fundamentals vs Europe underpin our Smurfit Westrock * = GAAP or approximated based on GAAP

Overweight rating.

Key Takeaways

US containerboard pricing power front & centre: domestic +$50/st in June (+

$100 YTD) to $1,045/st (vs MSe 3Q26 $1020/st); export pricing up $10-30/st

Supply tightness the key driver, aided by demand greenshoots as Packaging Corp.

points to 3.5%-4.5% y/y box growth in Apr-May; June backlogs stretch to 5-8 wks

Greater visibility on H2 margin expansion on pricing and moderating diesel/freight

headwinds, though fibre a partial offset with US OCC up $30/st YTD to $74/st

Boxboard mixed: SBS enjoys improving S&D/grade switching and suppliers

pushing for price increase; URB tight with a $70/st hike for July; CRB remains

softest

Full implementation of $50/st CB hike and improving SBS fundamentals bode

well SW into H2