Quarterly Preview: June‘26 Qtr

Research evidence excerpt

Quarterly Preview: June‘26 Qtr

IdeaPreviewMto earnings

Focus KPI Focus KPI Surprise Likely impact to consensus EPS*

BHP Group Ltd BHP.AX

Cu and met coal production for 4Q and

Likely upside surprise Modest revision higher

FY27

• FY27 production guidance expected: MSe FY27 total copper production +2% vs VA consensus, IO production -

1%, BMA +6%.

• MSe Total Cu prodn +1% vs consensus, with cathode +9%, driven by Escondida (+13%) and OD (+8%). We see

Escondida continuing to outperform, with MSe production at the top end of guide in FY26-27e.

• Total Cu sales -2% vs VA consensus, with concentrate sales -4% and cathode sales +6%; total Cu sales +7%

QoQ but -4% YoY.

• BMA production/sales +4% vs consensus, rebounding +36%/+35% QoQ after the weather affected MarQ, with

the Broadmeadow longwall move also completed over Feb-Apr.

• MSe WAIO attributable production/sales -1% vs consensus, Brazil prodn/sales +12%/+15%, NSW Energy Coal

production/sales +8%, both exceeding FY26 guide on MSe.

Boss Energy Ltd BOE.AX

Honeymoon prodn and costs for 4Q and

Likely downside surprise Modest revision lower

• FY27 MSe vs VA: Honeymoon production -6%, C1/AISC +4%/+7% and capex +34% as we expect higher costs

and capex near term before potential improved outcomes from the new FS.

• Honeymoon FY26 production was pre-flagged at 1.41Mlb, implying ~0.365Mlb for 4QFY26, with BOE

achieving revised FY26 production guidance.

• MSe realised uranium price in line with consensusat US$79.1/lb, reflecting stronger realised pricing through

the JunQ as term prices continued to move higher.

• MSe 4Q cost of production +4% vs consensusat A$45.7/lb on lower production vs VA consensusand Middle

East conflict cost impact of reagents.