Spot Base Consensus: 10 July 2026

Research evidence excerpt

Spot Base Consensus: 10 July 2026

Idea

July 10, 2026 08:04 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley Australia Limited+MAustralia Materials | Asia Pacific Rahul Anand, CFA

Equity Analyst

Spot Base Consensus: 10 July R.Anand@morganstanley.comMichael A Stancliff +61 2 9770-1136

Research Associate

Michael.Stancliff@morganstanley.com +61 2 9770-9253

Our weekly report compares spot-based valuation, cash flow,

and earnings metrics to current consensus and our base-case

values for all stocks under our coverage. Australia Materials

Asia Pacific

We compile the "Spot Base Consensus" report on a weekly basis to display spot Industry View Attractive

price scenario outcomes. All other assumptions from our base case models are

Recent Research:

unchanged. This provides context for current equity and commodity prices. The

Investor Presentation: Asia Summer School:

charts and tables below display the scenario outcomes.

Australia Materials (9 Jul 2026)

Methodology: We run spot commodity and currency prices through our models up Metals & Mining: 2Q26 Production Previews –

to CY32, then switch to our longer-term base case price assumptions detailed here – Diversified Miners (9 Jul 2026)

metal&ROCK: The Price Deck – 3Q26: Micro Narratives, But Macro Matters (8 Jul Australia Materials: Quarterly Preview: June'26

2026). Qtr (8 Jul 2026)

Australia Materials: Strategy 3Q: Demand Focus

Exhibit 1: Spot vs. base case vs. consensus EBITDA forecasts

(8 Jul 2026)

50% Australia Materials: Ground Up: Zircon and

40% China (8 Jul 2026)

Global Materials: Aluminum: From Deficit to

30%

Oversupply (8 Jul 2026)

20%

10%

0%

-10%

-20%

-30%

FY27 FY27 FY27 FY27 FY27 FY27 FY27 FY27 CY26 FY27 FY27 FY27 FY27 CY26

MIN PLS IGO FMG DRR S32 BHP LYC RIO SFR BOE WHC PDN ILU