Model Update

Research evidence excerpt

Model Update

Insurance: P&C Insurance

Progressive Corporation

TD SECURITIES (USA) LLC ESTIMATE CHANGES

June 23, 2026

Price: $207.38 (06/22/2026) Model Update

Price Target: $266.00

HOLD (2)

ESG SCORE: 54/100

Andrew Kligerman THE TD COWEN INSIGHT

212 468 8440

We are revising our 2026E/2027E estimates.

andrew.kligerman@tdsecurities.com

Daniel Bergman Revising 2026E/2027E Estimates

617 946 3747

dan.bergman@tdsecurities.com We are revising our 2026E/2027E estimates to $17.68/$16.71, from $16.77/$16.32. In addition to

May results, revisions include:

Alfred Miller

212 468 8453 ■Modestly lowered policy-in-force growth estimates in direct personal auto on lower than

alfred.miller@tdsecurities.com expected growth in 2Q26. We lower our 2026E growth estimate in direct to 7.6%, vs. 9.4%

previously.

Jeff Tong

212 468 8450 ■Lowered combined ratio estimates in personal auto, given continued better-than-expected

jeff.tong@tdsecurities.com performance, especially in underlying combined ratios. We lower our 2026E and 2027E

Adittya Parthasarathy, CFA personal auto combined ratio estimates to 89.3% and 91.3%, respectively, from 89.7% and

212 468 8449 91.6%, respectively.

adittya.parthasarathy@tdsecurities.com

■Increased net investment income estimates, based on higher than expected yields in

Key Data April and May. We now estimate net investment income of $4,101M in 2026E, vs. $3,926

Symbol NYSE: PGR previously.

Beta: 0.27

■Increased expense ratio estimates in commercial, given higher-than-expected ratios in

52-Week Range: $266.86-$190.40

1H26. We raise our 2026E commercial expense ratio estimate to 21.1%, vs. 20.1% previously.

Market Cap: $121.2B

Net Debt (MM): $8,207.0

Consensus estimates for 2026E/2027E are $17.16/$16.30.

Cash/Share: $27.98

Dil. Shares Out (MM): 586.9

Enterprise Value