The Price is Not Right

Research evidence excerpt

The Price is Not Right

Insurance

Progressive Corp. (PGR)

EQUITY RESEARCH Company Update

July 15, 2026

The Price is Not Right Price: $226.58

Price Target: $220.00 Progressive's June report was disappointing, with softer-than-expected

Rating: Neutral PIF growth (worst yet this cycle), sharper declines in premium/policy (a

Key Statistics: barometer for competitive market), and underwriting that for the first time

Symbol NYSE: PGR showed Progressive no longer over-earning. PIF adds of ~45k were weaker

52-Week Range 188.05 - 239.82 than expected, marking a sharp step-down from May's ~134k; June '24 was

Market Cap 132,209.4 ~289k, June '25 ~238k, and now ~45k. The competitive environment today ADV (3 mo) 3,153,997

looks a lot more like pre-2020 than the share gain years of 2024 and 2025, Shares Out (M) 583.5

and annualized PIF growth looks to be set on a glide path toward continuing

deceleration. Research Analysts:

Ryan Tunis Growth: Progressive added only ~45k PIF in June, weaker than expected.

917-746-8827 The more telling data point, however, is what June does to the broader

Ryan.Tunis@cantor.com quarterly picture on premium per policy. June premium per policy declined

Luc Nelson

929-717-3880 ~6% y/y, a notable step-down from the ~3% decline that had been fairly

Luc.Nelson@cantor.com consistent since February 2026, and while it may be tempting to view this

as a one-off month, pulling back to the quarter, premium per policy was

One-Year Price History down ~4% for 2Q26 as a whole, making this a broader trend rather than

280 a monthly blip. This speaks to a more persistent pricing headwind now

260 showing up at the quarterly level. Annualized PIF growth is now tracking

220 ~7%, and with 2H26 unlikely to offer any seasonal relief, the path back to