PGR June 2026: Sequential Direct Auto PIF Growth Largely Flat

Research evidence excerpt

PGR June 2026: Sequential Direct Auto PIF Growth Largely Flat

Nonlife Insurance

Personal Lines - Market Weight

PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION (PGR) July 15, 2026

PGR June 2026: Sequential Direct Auto PIF Growth Largely Rating:

Flat Peer Perform

Price:

$208.42

The Wolfe Byte Price Target:

Higher underlying losses and expenses, coupled with slowing PIF/NPW growth NA

drove the earnings miss. With excess capital and slower growth, buybacks remain View PGR Model

View Comp Tableelevated.

Company Information

PGR's June '26 sequential auto PIF growth decelerated at +0.2% (vs our +0.6% 52-Week Range $190 - $253 Market Cap. (MM) $132,399

estimate) down from May's +0.5%. We are struck by direct auto's historical PIF Enterprise Value (MM) $141,187

growth edge over agency is eroding, as direct auto PIF growth m/m was flat vs. Shares Out. (MM) 584.3

Avg. Value Traded (MM) $597.42

agency auto PIF growth m/m was 0.3%. Moreover, PGR's direct-to-agency spread (y/ SI% of Float 1.3%

y) has narrowed steadily through 1H26—down to just 2.1pt in June from 2.8pt in May Dividend Yield 0.2%

and 3.8pt back in January—implying that the direct channel is facing relatively greater Price Performance

competitive pressure. YTD LTM

PGR (2)% (14)%

Underlying loss ratio deteriorated by 640bps m/m and 460bps y/y. PGR's current SPX 10% 21%

combined ratios are well below 96% (i.e. June's combined ratio was 90.0% even with WRPI 10% 1%

an underlying loss ratio above 70% for the first time since Oct '24). PGR's property 270

26035.2% loss ratio included 11.7pt favorable impact from an actuarial methodology

process change (which it characterizes as a one-timer) - which we estimate improved 250240

the total loss ratio by 40bps implying a true underlying loss ratio of 70.8%. 230220